IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jadmsc/v13y2023i6p145-d1161848.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty in the Planning Phase of Public Projects—Its Scope, Consequences, and Possible Remedies

Author

Listed:
  • Dorota Kuchta

    (Department of Management Systems and Organizational Development, Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • Paolo Canonico

    (Department of Economics, Management, Institutions, University of Naples Federico II, 83100 Naples, Italy)

  • Vincenza Capone

    (Department of Humanities, University of Naples Federico II, 83100 Naples, Italy)

  • Guido Capaldo

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 83100 Naples, Italy)

Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess the uncertainty scope and types present in public projects, with uncertainty defined as a lack of knowledge, and to formulate recommendations for improving the success rate of public projects. Apart from a literature review, a questionnaire was administered among 60 Italian and 40 Polish public-project managers. Questions about the level of knowledge of various project aspects (e.g., project stakeholders or project environment) in the project-planning phase were asked. It was found that, in their own opinion, knowledge of essential aspects of public projects in the planning stage was fairly low among public-project managers. On top of that, the results showed in which areas, and in which of the two countries, the uncertainty was mostly present. This type of research has not been identified in the literature. In both countries, an especially high uncertainty level characterized project stakeholders. The survey’s conclusions are juxtaposed with results from the literature: the negative influence of lack of knowledge (i.e., uncertainty) on project success, specific features of public projects and public-project managers, and the fact that certain negative phenomena influencing project success are significantly more present in the public than in the private sector. Our results indicate which aspects of public projects in both countries should be subject to deep changes—as far as information collecting and processing, in the project-defining and planning phase, is concerned. All this leads to recommendations of measures to be introduced in the public sector with respect to public-project management, e.g., the establishment of project management offices, project knowledge sharing, project management training—all focused on the identified uncertainty types in public projects, such as management of project stakeholders. The main limitations of the study were the relatively small sample sizes, a non-random sample selection, a bias due to misinterpretation of the questions, and cultural differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorota Kuchta & Paolo Canonico & Vincenza Capone & Guido Capaldo, 2023. "Uncertainty in the Planning Phase of Public Projects—Its Scope, Consequences, and Possible Remedies," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jadmsc:v:13:y:2023:i:6:p:145-:d:1161848
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3387/13/6/145/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3387/13/6/145/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Brookes, Naomi J., 2017. "Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-122.
    2. Servranckx, Tom & Vanhoucke, Mario & Aouam, Tarik, 2021. "Practical application of reference class forecasting for cost and time estimations: Identifying the properties of similarity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1161-1179.
    3. Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne, 2019. "The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 277-294.
    4. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    5. Andrew Dainty & Mei-I Cheng & David Moore, 2003. "Redefining performance measures for construction project managers: an empirical evaluation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 209-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Munday, Max & Reynolds, Laura & Roberts, Annette, 2023. "Re-appraising ‘in-process’ benefits of strategic infrastructure improvements: Capturing the unexpected socio-economic impacts for lagging regions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-127.
    2. Coker, Ayodeji Ajibola Alexander, 2021. "Accuracy of in Medias RES and EX-Post Cost-Benefit Analyses: A Case of National Special Programme for Food Security, Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314936, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Che khairil Izam Che Ibrahim & Seosamh B. Costello & Suzanne Wilkinson, 2013. "Development of a conceptual team integration performance index for alliance projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1128-1143, November.
    4. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Molin, Eric & Rønnest, Arne & Stewa, 2019. "On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era: How to reduce statistical error in research," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 409-411.
    5. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
    6. Wang, Chao & Lim, Ming K. & Zhang, Xinyi & Zhao, Longfeng & Lee, Paul Tae-Woo, 2020. "Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 288-307.
    7. Ginés de Rus & Javier Campos & Daniel Graham & M. Pilar Socorro & Jorge Valido, 2020. "Evaluación Económica de Proyectos y Políticas de Transporte: Metodología y Aplicaciones. Parte 1: Metodología para el análisis coste-beneficio de proyectos y políticas de transporte," Working Papers 2020-11, FEDEA.
    8. Petr Halámek & Radka Matuszková & Michal Radimský, 2021. "Modernisation of Regional Roads Evaluated Using Ex-Post CBA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Peidong Sang & Jinjian Liu & Lin Zhang & Lingqiao Zheng & Haona Yao & Yanjie Wang, 2018. "Effects of Project Manager Competency on Green Construction Performance: The Chinese Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Zhang, Yijia & Cheng, Lu, 2023. "The role of transport infrastructure in economic growth: Empirical evidence in the UK," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 223-233.
    11. Estache, Antonio & Foucart, Renaud & Serebrisky, Tomás, 2022. "When can lotteries improve public procurement processes?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12484, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Iyer K. Chandrashekhar & Banerjee Partha S., 2019. "Identifying New Knowledge Areas to Strengthen the Project Management Institute (PMI) Framework," Organization, Technology and Management in Construction, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 1892-1903, March.
    13. Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2021. "Regression to the tail: Why the Olympics blow up," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(2), pages 233-260, March.
    14. Bos, Ernst & de Swart, Linette, 2024. "Towards a better comparison of ex-post and ex-ante BCA's by decomposing potential causes of difference," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 36-45.
    15. Jarosław Górecki & Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, 2020. "Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-31, April.
    16. GLUMAC Brano & CABALLE FABRA Gemma, 2018. "Housing in a Mobile World: A Definition of Flexible Housing and the Classification of Solutions," LISER Working Paper Series 2018-16, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    17. Muhammad Irfan & Sanam Zaib Khan & Nasruddin Hassan & Mazlan Hassan & Muhammad Habib & Salma Khan & Hadi Hassan Khan, 2021. "Role of Project Planning and Project Manager Competencies on Public Sector Project Success," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Dimitriou , Dimitrios J., 2018. "Economic impact and project financing equilibrium to assess large transport infrastructure projects," Working Papers 18_2, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    19. Ünsal-Altuncan, Izel & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2024. "A hybrid forecasting model to predict the duration and cost performance of projects with Bayesian Networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 511-527.
    20. Jenkins, G. & Olasehinde-Williams, G. & Baurzhan, S., 2022. "Is there a net economic loss from employing reference class forecasting in the appraisal of hydropower projects?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jadmsc:v:13:y:2023:i:6:p:145-:d:1161848. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.