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Роль Пандемии Коронавируса И Развала Сделки Опек+ В Динамике Цены На Нефть В 2020 Г

Author

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  • Lomonosov Daniil

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

Мировые цены на нефть в 2020 г. претерпели ощутимые потрясения, которые связывают прежде всего с двумя событиями – срывом сделки ОПЕК+ и пандемией коронавируса. На основе BVAR-модели нефтяного рынка в статье оценена количественная роль данных событий в динамике цен на нефть, а также выделены каналы их влияния через структурные шоки. Выявлено, что ожидания экономических агентов сыграли доминирующую роль в падении нефтяных цен в первой половине 2020 г., в то время как прямой вклад спада деловой активности в этот период был более скромным. Основным же фактором роста цен во втором полугодии 2020 г. стало значительное сокращение мировой добычи нефти. Статья подготовлена в рамках выполнения научно-исследовательской работы государственного задания РАНХиГС.

Suggested Citation

  • Lomonosov Daniil, 2021. "Роль Пандемии Коронавируса И Развала Сделки Опек+ В Динамике Цены На Нефть В 2020 Г," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 8, pages 23-28, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:ruserr:r2185
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    цены на нефть; пандемия; ОПЕК+; шоки мировой деловой активности; шоки предложения нефти; специфические шоки спроса на нефть;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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