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Role of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the Collapse of the OPEC+ Deal in the Dynamics of Oil Prices in 2020
[Роль Пандемии Коронавируса И Развала Сделки Опек+ В Динамике Цены На Нефть В 2020 Г]

Author

Listed:
  • Lomonosov Daniil

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

In 2020, world oil prices were subjected to notable shocks, which are primarily associated with two events – the failure of the OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic. Based on the BVAR model of the oil market, the article assesses the quantitative role of these events in the oil prices dynamic, and also identifies the channels of their influence through structural shocks. It is revealed that the expectations of economic agents played a dominant role in the fall in oil prices in H1 2020, while the direct contribution of the decline in business activity during this period was more modest. The main factor of price growth in H2 2020 is there has been a significant reduction in global oil output. The article was prepared as part of the state research order of the RANEPA.

Suggested Citation

  • Lomonosov Daniil, 2021. "Role of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the Collapse of the OPEC+ Deal in the Dynamics of Oil Prices in 2020 [Роль Пандемии Коронавируса И Развала Сделки Опек+ В Динамике Цены На Нефть В 2020 Г]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 8, pages 23-28, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2185
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    8. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
    9. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; pandemic; OPEC+; global economic activity shock; oil supply shock; specific oil demand shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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