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Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress

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  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky

Abstract

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 1999/178, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1999/178
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