IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fst/rfsisf/v12y2022i7p105-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contagion effects on financial markets risk

Author

Listed:
  • Anca Ionășcuți

    (West University of Timisoara, Timisoara, Romania)

  • Bogdan Dima

    (West University of Timisoara, Timisoara, Romania)

Abstract

Financial contagion represents a very controversial concept in international finance being one of the most frequently referenced subjects and yet least understood. The literature highlights that shocks and crises can spillover from a country to others through various channels. Although it is hard to determine exactly the cause and channel that lead to the transmission of the initial shock, it is more than clear that these events are encouraged when economies are integrated or in the process of global integration. The core of this study is to capture evidence of financial contagion based on a sample of daily closing prices from 17 different market indices, for the period January 1st, 2007 – October 15th, 2021. We employed the shortfall method for estimating the risk and we built a model within the framework of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). Given the results, evidence of contagion was sensed between some of the 17 markets within the sample, however the causality between them differed from the full sample period to the sub-samples periods. Nevertheless, we found that for the sub-sample corresponding to January 1st, 2020 – October 15th, 2021, period that encompasses the global exogenous shock triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic that appeared in Romania at the beginning of 2020, the relationships between global markets were decoupled, contagion being sensed mostly regionally, at the level of the European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Anca Ionășcuți & Bogdan Dima, 2022. "Contagion effects on financial markets risk," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 12(7), pages 105-133, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fst:rfsisf:v:12:y:2022:i:7:p:105-133
    DOI: 10.55654/JFS.2022.7.12.08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://revista.isfin.ro/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/13.-Ionascuti-Anca_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://revista.isfin.ro/en/2022/05/19/education-and-labour-market-performance-in-romania-an-empirical-analysis-of-the-urban-rural-gap-2/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.55654/JFS.2022.7.12.08?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herculano, Miguel C., 2018. "The role of contagion in the transmission of financial stress," ESRB Working Paper Series 81, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Forbes, Kristin J. & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4391b5w7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    4. Asgharian, Hossein & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Risk contagion among international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, February.
    5. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    6. John Beirne & Jana Gieck, 2014. "Interdependence and Contagion in Global Asset Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 639-659, September.
    7. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
    8. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hashem, Shatha Qamhieh, 2021. "Network VAR models to measure financial contagion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    9. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2003. "Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 328-348, May.
    10. Hossein Asgharian & Christoffer Bengtsson, 2006. "Jump Spillover in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 167-203.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    2. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    3. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2009. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific onshore and offshore currency forwards markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 174-196, March.
    5. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.
    6. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Liu, Lu, 2013. "International stock market interdependence: Are developing markets the same as developed markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 226-238.
    8. Edoardo Otranto & Romana Gargano, 2015. "Financial clustering in presence of dominant markets," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(3), pages 315-339, September.
    9. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?: Asset Price Contagion During the Global Financial ," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 969, OECD Publishing.
    10. Singh, Vikkram & Roca, Eduardo & Li, Bin, 2021. "Effectiveness of policy interventions during financial crises in China and Russia: Lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-277.
    11. Faruk, Balli, 2006. "New Patterns in International Portfolio Allocation and Income Smoothing," MPRA Paper 10121, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Aug 2008.
    12. Çakır, Mustafa Yavuz & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Trade shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 190-202.
    13. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    14. Serge Darolles & Jeremy Dudek & Gaëlle Le Fol, 2014. "Liquidity risk and contagion for liquid funds," Post-Print hal-01632776, HAL.
    15. Guesmi, Khaled & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2517-2527.
    16. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Business-cycle fluctuations and international equity correlations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 252-270, December.
    17. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    18. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-648, December.
    19. Fahad Waqas Mir & Nousheen Tariq Bhutta, 2024. "Impact of return and volatility spillover from banking industry to other industries: An evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1680-1695, April.
    20. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial contagion; spillovers; financial markets; pandemic crisis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fst:rfsisf:v:12:y:2022:i:7:p:105-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cosmin Catalin Olteanu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isfinro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.