IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fru/finjrn/240501p8-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transformation of Public Debt Structure by Creditors in Central Asian and South Caucasus Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan V. Nikonov

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Monika G. Arustamyan

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Oskar R. Mukhametov

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Anton I. Votinov

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Stanislav A. Radionov

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation; Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The rapid growth of public debt in developing countries in recent years and the increasing risks associated with this process emphasize the importance of research in this area. The article examines one of the key aspects of public debt management — the structure of creditors’ debt portfolio. The object of the study is the public debt of four countries of Central Asia and three countries of the South Caucasus. The states of this region are important foreign economic partners of Russia, their contribution to mutual trade and realization of joint projects is growing. Their role in the global and regional economy is also expanding, including participation in major transport and logistics projects designed to increase the connectivity of Eurasia. The study is based on the data of international organizations on the total volume of public debt, debt to individual external creditors and the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The article examines changes in the structure of the main groups of creditors for each country over three long-term periods and analyzes similarities and differences in the observed structural shifts. It also decomposes the indicator of public debt dynamics and estimates the contribution of the economic growth factor and the effects of changes in countries’ debt to certain groups of creditors. The study identified the following key trends in public debt structural changes: 1) the declining role of bilateral loans from developed and developing countries since the 2000s; 2) the continued strong influence of debt raised from international financial organizations and development banks in most countries throughout the period under study; 3) in a number of countries, a gradual increase in market sources of debt financing (domestic and Eurobonds); the increasing role of loans from China — in the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan, etc. The study identifies reasons for these structural changes, and concludes with a discussion of the risks associated with the observed shifts in the structure of public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan V. Nikonov & Monika G. Arustamyan & Oskar R. Mukhametov & Anton I. Votinov & Stanislav A. Radionov, 2024. "Transformation of Public Debt Structure by Creditors in Central Asian and South Caucasus Countries," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 8-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:240501:p:8-26
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2024-5-8-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2024/5/statii/01_5_2024_v16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-5-8-26?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    3. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    4. Kenneth Rogoff, 2022. "Emerging Market Sovereign Debt in the Aftermath of the Pandemic," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 147-166, Fall.
    5. Kris James Mitchener & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Sovereign Debt in the Twenty-first Century," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 565-623, June.
    6. Ivan Nikonov & Stanislav Radionov & Oscar Mukhametov, 2023. "National Debt in Central Asia: Risks and Management Approaches," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 550-573.
    7. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Günther Taube, 1998. "Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects," IMF Working Papers 1998/132, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Boris Aronovich Kheyfets, 2017. "International Credit Policy of Russia," Russian Foreign Economic Journal, Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation, issue 7, pages 95-107, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2021. "Understanding China's role in recent debt relief operations: A case study analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 23-41.
    4. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2020. "China’s debt relief actions overseas and macroeconomic implications," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    6. Christian Breuer, 2020. "Goverment Debt Post COVID-19: Back To Golden Rules," Chemnitz Economic Papers 041, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Feb 2020.
    7. Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado, 2022. "Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-47, December.
    8. Ludger Schuknecht, 2019. "Fiscal-Financial Vulnerabilities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7776, CESifo.
    9. Daisuke Miyashita, 2023. "Public debt and income inequality in an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 447-472, August.
    10. Schuster, Florian & Krahé, Max & Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa, 2021. "Wird die Konjunkturkomponente der Schuldenbremse in ihrer heutigen Ausgestaltung ihrer Aufgabe noch gerecht? Analyse und ein Reformvorschlag," Papers 277885, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    11. John Cochrane, 2022. "The fiscal root of inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 22-40, July.
    12. Karl Whelan, 2021. "Central banks and inflation: where do we stand and how did we get here?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 310–330-3, December.
    13. Max Krahé & Florian Schuster & Philippa Sigl-Glöckner, 2021. "Wird die Konjunkturkomponente der Schuldenbremse ihrer Aufgabe noch gerecht? [Is the Cyclical Component of the Debt Brake Still Up to Its Task?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 621-628, August.
    14. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Schmukler, Sergio L. & von Peter, Goetz, 2023. "Bilateral international investments: The big sur?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Marson, Marta & Savin, Ivan, 2022. "Complementary or adverse? Comparing development results of official funding from China and traditional donors in Africa," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 189-206.
    16. Langenmayr Dominika & Mittermaier Ferdinand, 2021. "Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften, nachhaltig finanziert: Herausforderungen für die Politik in den 2020er Jahren," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 176-190, September.
    17. Battistini, Niccolò & Callegari, Giovanni, 2020. "Public spending at the effective lower bound: how significant are the sustainability risks?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 67.
    18. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2023. "Public Debt Bubbles In Heterogeneous Agent Models With Tail Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 491-509, May.
    19. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "What Explains Global Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Reserve Bank of India, 2022. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the wake of the pandemic," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The monetary-fiscal policy nexus in the wake of the pandemic, volume 122, pages 149-157, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; external debt; creditor structure; Central Asia; South Caucasus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:240501:p:8-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gennady Ageev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frigvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.