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Sectoral Effects of Bank of Russia Disinflation Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Evgeny L. Goryunov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow 119571, Russia)

Abstract

Usually disinflation policy leads to decline in economic activity in medium term. Later, inflation expectation decrease and money circulation normalization will lead to interest rate decline and widening of a planning. These effects, both positive and negative, affect various industries differently. In this paper the author aims to assess sectoral consequences of disinflation policy, which has been recently implemented by the Bank of Russia.Economic theory predicts the following. Firstly, tight monetary policy hits industries producing investment goods, since demand for that type of goods in sensitive to interest rates change. Secondly, procyclical industries suffer. Thirdly, interest rate hike constrains loans to small and medium enterprises more than to large ones. Furthermore, real exchange rate appreciates during disinflation policy and therefore worsen terms for exporters. All these effects, except real appreciation of ruble, are present in Russian economy. Along with that mortgage lending is widening and long-term interest rates are decreasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgeny L. Goryunov, 2018. "Sectoral Effects of Bank of Russia Disinflation Policy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 21-33, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:180602:p:21-33
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2018-6-21-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; sectoral effects; transmission mechanisms; yield curve; mortgage lending; small and medium enterprises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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