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Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor

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  • J. Scott Armstrong

Abstract

Choosing the right person for a given position is a highly complex task, J. Scott Armstrong yet experts believe that their experience allows them to do this well. Michael Lewis’s 2003 book Moneyball and the recent film based on the book provide a counterpoint, showing that the statistical procedures used by Billy Beane, general manager of professional baseball’s Oakland Athletics, are more effective in predicting job performance than are experts’ judgments. In this article, Scott Armstrong traces the emergence of the argument in favor of statistical procedures to writings in the 1950s by Paul Meehl and shows how Meehl’s principles, carried forward by Billy Beane, can be applied to improve business performance today. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

Suggested Citation

  • J. Scott Armstrong, 2012. "Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 25, pages 31-34, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:31-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    2. Angelika Lepold & Norbert Tanzer & Anita Bregenzer & Paulino Jiménez, 2018. "The Efficient Measurement of Job Satisfaction: Facet-Items versus Facet Scales," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, June.

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