IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y1998iqivp35-47nv.83no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How important is the inflation risk premium?

Author

Listed:
  • Pu Shen

Abstract

Investors and market analysts generally believe that the yield on a nominal bond includes an inflation risk premium to compensate investors for bearing the inflation risk associated with the bond. Knowing how much of a risk premium investors require on nominal bonds can be valuable information for policymakers. For government Treasuries, the size of the risk premium represents the potential interest savings for governments when nominal securities are replaced with real, or inflation-indexed, securities. And, because the inflation risk premium reflects perceived inflation uncertainty, changes in the size of the risk premium can reveal to monetary policymakers how credible their policy actions are in the marketplace. Unfortunately, empirical evidence on the actual size of the inflation risk premium and its response to market events is scarce.> To address these empirical shortcomings, Shen uses data from the United Kingdom, where about 20 percent of outstanding government debt is in the form of real bonds. She finds that the inflation risk premium in nominal government bonds is sizable. She also finds that information regarding the inflation risk premium may give useful insight to monetary policymakers. For example, changes in the estimated inflation risk premium in the UK in the second half of 1992 suggest that the announcement of an explicit inflation target did not gain instant credibility with financial market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Pu Shen, 1998. "How important is the inflation risk premium?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 35-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1998:i:qiv:p:35-47:n:v.83no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/792/1998-How%20Important%20Is%20the%20Inflation%20Risk%20Premium%3F.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Iwao Kuroda (ed.), Towards More Effective Monetary Policy, chapter 8, pages 211-252, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. George A. Kahn & Klara Parrish, 1998. "Conducting monetary policy with inflation targets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III), pages 5-32.
    3. Pu Shen, 1995. "Benefits and limitations of inflation indexed Treasury bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q III), pages 41-56.
    4. Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Deriving Estimates of Inflation Expectations from the Prices of UK Government Bonds," Bank of England working papers 23, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Ren-Raw & Liu, Bo & Cheng, Xiaolin, 2010. "Pricing the term structure of inflation risk premia: Theory and evidence from TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 702-721, September.
    2. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
    3. Jonathan Corning & Pu Shen, 2001. "Can TIPS help identify long-term inflation expectations?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q IV), pages 61-87.
    4. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
    5. Zeng, Zheng, 2013. "New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 125-139.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noureddine Benlagha, 2013. "The Long-run Relationship among Index-linked Bonds and Conventional Bonds," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 15-24, February.
    2. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    3. Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-99.
    4. Francisco Dakila, Jr., 2001. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Zafar Hayat & Saher Masood, 2022. "Inflation Targeting Skepticism: Myth or Reality? A Way Forward for Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27.
    6. Manfred J. M. Neumann & Jurgen Von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 127-148.
    7. Jim Lee, 1999. "Inflation Targeting In Practice: Further Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 332-347, July.
    8. Mark M. Spiegel, 1998. "Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-14.
    9. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1996. "The long-run costs of moderate inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q II), pages 71-88.
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    11. Michael Joyce & Vicky Read, 2002. "Asset price reactions to RPI announcements," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 253-270.
    12. Mishkin, F.S., 1998. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Papers 648, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    13. Maria de Fátima Silva & José Monteiro, 2000. "Information on inflation expectations contained in the prices of financial assets," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    15. Moretti, Laura, 2014. "Inflation targeting and product market deregulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 372-386.
    16. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Vplyv inflačných očakávaní na vývoj úrokových sadzieb v krajinách Višegrádskej štvorky [Inflation expectations and interest rates development in the Visegrad countries]," MPRA Paper 17059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kursat Kunter & Norbert Janssen, 2002. "Credibility Of Monetary Regimes : Is Inflation Targeting Different?," Discussion Papers 0201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Nuno Cassola & Jorge Barros Luis, 2003. "A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 783-806.
    19. Guy Debelle, 1998. "Inflation Targeting in Practice," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ23, April.
    20. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bonds; Inflation (Finance);

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1998:i:qiv:p:35-47:n:v.83no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.