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The productivity growth slowdown: diverging trends in the manufacturing and service sectors

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  • Sharon Kozicki

Abstract

Continuing gains in labor productivity are essential to keep real wages and the U.S. standard of living from stagnating. After a period of strong gains in the 1960s, the average growth rate of productivity slowed substantially in the early 1970s. In the following years, productivity continued to grow slowly despite rapid technological advances in such areas as computers and digital communications. Analysts have proposed differing explanations for the productivity slowdown and for the failure of productivity growth to rebound in recent years. Most explanations focus on aggregate factors, such as overall saving and investment rates or the quality of the labor force.> Kozicki approaches the productivity growth slowdown from a different perspective. In particular, she decomposes the slowdown into contributions by broad sectors of the economy, focusing on the two largest sectors manufacturing and services. Doing this reveals that the main factor accounting for the productivity slowdown has been stagnating productivity in the service sector. An accompanying and reinforcing factor has been the strong employment growth in services relative to manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharon Kozicki, 1997. "The productivity growth slowdown: diverging trends in the manufacturing and service sectors," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 31-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1997:i:qi:p:31-46:n:v.82no,1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Roy Trivedi, Smita, 2011. "The growing dichotomy between real and financial sectors," MPRA Paper 41421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dupuy, Arnaud & Marey, Philip S., 2008. "Shifts and twists in the relative productivity of skilled labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 718-735, June.
    3. Andrew J. Filardo, 1997. "Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q II), pages 63-87.
    4. Kapur, Basant K., 2012. "Progressive services, asymptotically stagnant services, and manufacturing: Growth and structural change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1322-1339.
    5. Dupuy, Arnaud & Marey, Philip S., 2008. "Shifts and twists in the relative productivity of skilled labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 718-735, June.
    6. Inoue, Tetsuya, 1998. "Impact of Information Technology and Implications for Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 16(2), pages 29-60, December.
    7. Norman Sedgley & Bruce Elmslie, 2004. "The Geographic Concentration of Knowledge: Scale, Agglomeration, and Congestion in Innovation Across U.S. States," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 27(2), pages 111-137, April.
    8. Philip Marey & Arnaud Dupuy, 2004. "Shifts and Twists in the Relative Productivity of Skilled Labor: Reconciling Accelerated SBTC with the Productivity Slowdown," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 118, Econometric Society.
    9. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.

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