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Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest

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  • Craig S. Hakkio
  • Andrew Lee Smith

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Suggested Citation

  • Craig S. Hakkio & Andrew Lee Smith, 2017. "Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-39.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 39-42, May.
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    7. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    8. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 241-270.
    10. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    11. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
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    13. Jason Choi & Taeyoung Doh, 2016. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy on and off the Zero Lower Bound," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-24.
    14. Jun Nie & Andrew Palmer, 2016. "Consumer Spending in China: The Past and the Future," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 25-49.
    15. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Filardo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 691, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    5. Hongjin Li & Naifang Su, 2020. "Financial Factors, Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 76-100, July.
    6. Mr. Fei Han, 2019. "Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2019/031, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Han, Fei, 2024. "The impact of demographic change on the natural rate of interest in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Troy Davig & Andrew Lee Smith, 2017. "Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy under Balance Sheet Adjustments," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, May.
    9. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond premiums; Federal funds rate; Natural real rate of interest; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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