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What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Charles L. Evans
  • Jonas D. M. Fisher

Abstract

The recent run-ups in oil and other commodity prices and their implications for inflation and monetary policy have grabbed the attention of many commentators in the media. Clearly, higher prices of food and energy end up in the broadest measures of consumer price inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index. Since the mid-1980s, however, sharp increases and decreases in commodity prices have had little, if any, impact on core inflation, the measure that excludes food and energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles L. Evans & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2011. "What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:y:2011:i:may:n:286
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Szafranek, 2015. "Financialisation of the commodity markets. Conclusions from the VARX DCC GARCH," NBP Working Papers 213, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & D'Acunto, Francesco & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 14932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    4. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2019. "Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 26237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sek, Siok Kun, 2019. "Unveiling the factors of oil versus non-oil sources in affecting the global commodity prices: A combination of threshold and asymmetric modeling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 272-280.
    6. Boateng, Ebenezer & Asafo-Adjei, Emmanuel & Addison, Alex & Quaicoe, Serebour & Yusuf, Mawusi Ayisat & Abeka, Mac Junior & Adam, Anokye M., 2022. "Interconnectedness among commodities, the real sector of Ghana and external shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. John C. Williams, 2015. "The view from here: outlook and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Ferrari, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Martin Fukac, 2011. "Have rising oil prices become a greater threat to price stability?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q IV), pages 27-53.
    10. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization Institute Working Papers 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. John C. Williams, 2015. "Looking forward: the path for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Binder, Carola Conces, 2018. "Inflation expectations and the price at the pump," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    13. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    14. Bekmuratov, Mukhsinbek & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Granger-causality between oil price and macrovariables: ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 109862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ephraim Ugwu & Emma-Ebere Obiajulu, 2018. "An Interaction Between Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices And Inflation In Nigeria, 1980-2015," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 17-31, March.
    16. Mine Yücel, 2018. "Oil and the economy: evolution not revolution," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 225-231, October.
    17. John C. Williams, 2015. "Looking forward, forward looking: the path for monetary policy," Speech 138, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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