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Seasonal and Business Cycles of U.S. Employment

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Abstract

The authors document several facts about the seasonality of U.S. employment, including its marked decline since the 1960s. In addition, they find there is little evidence that industries or states that are more seasonal are also more sensitive to the business cycle, contrary to some previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Menelik Geremew & François Gourio, 2018. "Seasonal and Business Cycles of U.S. Employment," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 3, pages 1-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:00032
    DOI: doi.org/10.21033/ep-2018-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
    2. Prato, Anthony A. & Osborn, James E. & Shane, Ronald L. & Meyers, Gordon & Clevenger, Tom & Casavant, Kenneth L. & Vaux, Henry J., Jr., 1987. "In The West," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-2.
    3. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, April.
    4. Barsky, Robert B & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 503-534, June.
    5. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
    6. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 621-656.
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    Cited by:

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    2. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Upjohn Working Papers 20-337, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Andrew Taeho Kim & Matt Erickson & Yurong Zhang & ChangHwan Kim, 2022. "Who is the “She” in the Pandemic “She-Cession”? Variation in COVID-19 Labor Market Outcomes by Gender and Family Status," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1325-1358, June.
    5. Lahiri, Kajal & Yin, Yimeng, 2024. "Seasonality in U.S. disability applications, labor market, and the pandemic echoes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Fogarty, Michael, 2022. "The perils of working with big data, and a SMALL checklist you can use to recognize them," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 481-492.
    7. Mutascu, Mihai, 2019. "Phillips curve in US: New insights in time and frequency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 85-96.

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