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Modeling the time-series behavior of the aggregate wage rate

Author

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  • Chan Guk Huh
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

This paper looks at the time-series behavior of the real wage relative to that of productivity. Given an exogenous, nonstationary process for productivity, we use a simple model of dynamic labor demand to show that the real wage and the marginal product of labor will be cointegrated if the representative firm chooses the profit-maximizing level of employment. Data for the postwar period satisfy this condition. On the basis of this result we estimate a vector error correction model containing prices, wages, and productivity and examine the dynamic relationships among these variables. This specification provides a natural setting for looking at a number of issues of interest, including the role of the unemployment rate in the wage rate equation, issues of wage-price causality, and the effect of exogenous wage rate changes on productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan Guk Huh & Bharat Trehan, 1995. "Modeling the time-series behavior of the aggregate wage rate," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1995:p:3-13:n:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Eswar Prasad & Alun Thomas, 1998. "Labour Market Adjustment in Canada and the United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(s1), pages 121-137, February.
    2. Yash P. Mehra, 1993. "Unit labor costs and the price level," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 35-52.
    3. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2000. "Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Jul).
    4. Yash P. Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    5. C. Alan Garner, 1998. "A closer look at the employment cost index," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III), pages 63-78.
    6. Yusuf V. Topuz & Hassan Yazdifar & Sunil Sahadev, 2018. "The relation between the producer and consumer price indices: a two-country study," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(3), pages 122-130, June.
    7. Luojia Hu & Maude Toussaint-Comeau, 2010. "Do labor market activities help predict inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 34(Q II), pages 52-63.
    8. Julio, Juan Manuel & Cobo, Adolfo, 2000. "The Relationship between Wages and Prices in Colombia," MPRA Paper 29069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2000.
    9. Jack Strauss & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "The Linkage between Prices, Wages, and Labor Productivity: A Panel Study of Manufacturing Industries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 920-941, April.
    10. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    time series analysis; Wages;

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