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Disagreement about the inflation outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Justin Weidner

Abstract

Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy communications strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2009:i:oct5:n:2009-31
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    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2009/10/inflation-outlook-forecast/
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    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/frbsf/frbsf_let/frbsf_let_20091005.pdf
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    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/economic-letter-federal-reserve-bank-san-francisco-4960/disagreement-inflation-outlook-633448
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    2. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter & Kai D. Schmid, 2009. "The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 320/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    3. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    5. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Economic forecasting;

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