IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2012ioct15n2012-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is China due for a slowdown?

Author

Listed:
  • Israel Malkin
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

Many analysts have predicted that a Chinese economic slowdown is inevitable because the country is approaching the per capita income at which growth in other countries began to decelerate. However, China may escape such a slowdown because of its uneven development. An analysis based on episodes of rapid expansion in four other Asian countries suggests that growth in China?s more developed provinces may slow to 5.5% by the close of the decade. But growth in the country?s less-developed provinces is expected to run at a robust 7.5% pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Israel Malkin & Mark M. Spiegel, 2012. "Is China due for a slowdown?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct15.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2012:i:oct15:n:2012-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-31.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-31.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    2. Kim, Jinhee & Lee, Keun, 2022. "Local–global interface as a key factor in the catching up of regional innovation systems: Fast versus slow catching up among Taipei, Shenzhen, and Penang in Asia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2020. "Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 677-710, September.
    4. Julia, Knolle, 2014. "An Empirical Comparison of Interest and Growth Rates," MPRA Paper 59520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    6. Saúl N. Keifman & Diego Herrero, 2020. "Convergencia económica e industrial entre países. ¿Qué dice la evidencia?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4361, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    7. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2021. "Brazil's quasi-stagnation and East-Asia growth: A new-developmental explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 500-508.
    8. Tan Khee Giap & Sasidaran Gopalan & Nursyahida Ahmad, 2018. "Growth Slowdown Analysis for Indonesia’s Subnational Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-36, September.
    9. Amir Lebdioui & Keun Lee & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2021. "Local-foreign technology interface, resource-based development, and industrial policy: how Chile and Malaysia are escaping the middle-income trap," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 660-685, June.
    10. Minsoo Lee & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi, 2017. "How growth deceleration in the PRC affects other Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 61-77, November.
    11. Rod Tyers, 2012. "The Rise and Robustness of Economic Freedom in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    14. Kang, Byeongwoo & Nabeshima, Kaoru & Cheng, Fang-Ting, 2015. "Avoiding the middle income trap : indigenous innovative effort vs foreign innovative effort," IDE Discussion Papers 509, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    15. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    16. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2015. "Middle-income growth traps," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 641-660.
    17. Otaviano Canuto & Matheus Cavallari & Tiago Ribeiro dos Santos, 2019. "Middle Income Countries and Multilateral Development Banks Traps on the Way to Graduation," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 1909, Policy Center for the New South.
    18. Otsuka, Keijiro & Higuchi, Yuki & Sonobe, Tetsushi, 2017. "Middle-income traps in East Asia: An inquiry into causes for slowdown in income growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(S), pages 3-16.
    19. Eswar Prasad, 2023. "Has China's Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(1 (Spring), pages 243-270.
    20. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic conditions - China;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2012:i:oct15:n:2012-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.