IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2010idec20n2010-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risky mortgages and mortgage default premiums

Author

Listed:
  • John Krainer
  • Stephen F. LeRoy

Abstract

Mortgage lenders impose a default premium on the loans they originate to compensate for the possibility that borrowers won?t make payments. The housing boom of the 2000s was characterized by increasing riskiness of the borrowers approved for mortgages and the structures of the loans themselves. Despite these changes in risk, a pricing model can justify the spreads contained in mortgages made during this period based on what at the time seemed to be reasonable expectations for house price appreciation. Contrary to those expectations, prices fell dramatically.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy, 2010. "Risky mortgages and mortgage default premiums," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec20.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:dec20:n:2010-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-38.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-38.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1985. "Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-228, September.
    2. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy & Munpyung O, 2009. "Mortgage default and mortgage valuation," Working Paper Series 2009-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sá, Ana Isabel, 2020. "To change or not to change: the impact of the law on mortgage origination," MPRA Paper 104818, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328.
    2. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Xingang Wen & Peter M. Kort & Dolf Talman, 2017. "Volume flexibility and capacity investment: a real options approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(12), pages 1633-1646, December.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    6. Nicola Fusari & Wei Li & Haoyang Liu & Zhaogang Song, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Cohort‐Based Trading in MBS Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3249-3287, December.
    7. Leon G. Shilton & James R. Webb, 1989. "Commercial Loan Underwriting and Option Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12.
    8. Congjin Zhou & Guojing Wang & Yinghui Dong & Pin Wang, 2024. "The Valuation at Origination of Mortgages with Full Prepayment and Default Risks," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    10. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    11. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19258 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jeske, Karsten & Krueger, Dirk & Mitman, Kurt, 2013. "Housing, mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 917-935.
    13. Harding, John P., 2000. "Mortgage Valuation with Optimal Intertemporal Refinancing Strategies," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 233-266, December.
    14. Che-Chun Lin & Ting-Heng Chu & Larry J. Prather & Perry Wang, 2005. "Mortgage Curtailment and Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 95-109.
    15. Winkler, Kay, 2015. "Determining Optimal Macroprudential Instruments," Working Paper Series 19258, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    16. Winkler, Kay, 2015. "Determining Optimal Macroprudential Instruments," Working Paper Series 4182, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    17. Nai Jia Lee, 2003. "Expected Return of Housing and Mortgage Termination," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 75-101.
    18. (David) Ho, Kim Hin & Su, Huiyong, 2006. "Structural prepayment risk behavior of the underlying mortgages for residential mortgage life insurance in a developing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 257-278, September.
    19. Yongheng Deng & Della Zheng & Changfeng Ling, 2005. "An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-136, September.
    20. Longstaff, Francis A., 2002. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt19k7479t, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    21. Groh, Alexander P., 2004. "Risikoadjustierte Performance von Private Equity-Investitionen," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 21382, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default (Finance); Mortgage loans;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:dec20:n:2010-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.