Probability of recession
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1990.
"On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads,"
New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Neftici, Salih N., 1982. "Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 225-241, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007.
"Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
- Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2002. "Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," CAMA Working Papers 2006-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q2), pages 1-12.
- Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001.
"La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?,"
Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l’information sur l’activité économique future ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015.
"How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?,"
Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jimenez-Martin, 2007. "How well do Individuals predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jimenez-Martín, 2009. "How Well Do Individuals Predict the Selling Prices of Their Homes?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_571, Levy Economics Institute.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2008. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Economics Working Papers 1065, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
- Hugo Benítez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2008. "How Well do Individuals Predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?," Working Papers 2008-10, FEDEA.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark & Schmidt, Timothy J., 1996.
"The marginal income tax rate schedule from 1930 to 1990,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-138, August.
- Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush & Timothy J. Schmidt, 1993. "The marginal income tax rate schedule from 1930 to 1990," Research Working Paper 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
- Diebold & Rudebusch, "undated". "Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective," Home Pages _061, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alessi, Lucia & Ossola, Elisa & Panzica, Roberto, 2023. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
- Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014.
"The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
- Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Javier Sosvilla Rivero, 2013. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-19, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle," Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Taux d'intérêt, spreads, comportement bancaire : les effets sur l'activité réelle," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 625-634.
- K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
- J. Peter Ferderer & Stephen C. Vogt & Ravi Chahil, 1994. "Liquidity, Uncertainty, and the Declining Predictive Power of the Paper-bill Spread," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_119, Levy Economics Institute.
- Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Using econometric models to predict recessions," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 15(Nov), pages 14-25.
- Jakas, Vicente, 2011. "Theory and empirics of an affine term structure model applied to European data," MPRA Paper 36029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
More about this item
Keywords
Econometric models; Recessions;Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:1991:i:apr5:n:91-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.