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Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound

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Abstract

New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.

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  • Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2022. "Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(34), pages 1-5, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:95224
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    1. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2011. "What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 59-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Are Negative Supply Shocks Expansionary at the Zero Lower Bound?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 973-1007.
    3. Bodenstein, Martin & Guerrieri, Luca & Gust, Christopher J., 2013. "Oil shocks and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 941-967.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alexander Mechanick & Jacob P. Weber, 2024. "The Countercyclical Benefits of Regulatory Costs," Staff Reports 1109, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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