IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v54y2022i1p247-283.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Labor Market Policies in a Deep Recession: Lessons from Hoover's Policies during the U.S. Great Depression

Author

Listed:
  • JORDAN ROULLEAU‐PASDELOUP
  • ANASTASIA ZHUTOVA

Abstract

What are the effects of labor market policies when the economy is sliding into a deep recession? We show that public announcements asking firms not to cut wages under H. Hoover during 1929–33 postponed entering the zero lower bound episode and reduced its duration. We develop and estimate a medium scale New Keynesian model to measure the effect of Hoover policies during the Great Depression and we find evidence that without such polices the U.S. economy would have ended up in a liquidity trap 3 years before it actually did, suffering an even deeper recession with a larger deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan Roulleau‐Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2022. "Labor Market Policies in a Deep Recession: Lessons from Hoover's Policies during the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 247-283, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:1:p:247-283
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12798
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12798
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12798?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    2. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "Labor Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Historical Working Papers 0058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    4. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
    5. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2004. "Deflation and Depression: Is There an Empirical Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 99-103, May.
    6. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
    7. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2013. "The Impact of Cartelization, Money, and Productivity Shocks on the International Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 18823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Ortiz, Alberto & Paustian, Matthias, 2014. "Estimating contract indexation in a Financial Accelerator Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-149.
    9. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    10. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Money and the Price Level under the Gold Standard," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(353), pages 13-33, March.
    13. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    14. Ohanian, Lee E., 2009. "What - or who - started the great depression?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2310-2335, November.
    15. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-555, February.
    16. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    17. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    18. Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2019. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 160-175, March.
    19. Ohanian, Lee E., 2014. "The impact of monetary policy in the midst of big shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 35-48.
    20. Jérémie Cohen‐Setton & Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2017. "Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 273-317, March.
    21. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2011. "What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 59-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Albrecht Ritschl & Monique Ebell, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," 2007 Meeting Papers 712, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    24. Mattesini, Fabrizio & Rossi, Lorenza, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in economies with dual labor markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1469-1489, July.
    25. Romer, Christina D., 1988. "World War I and the postwar depression A reinterpretation based on alternative estimates of GNP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 91-115, July.
    26. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, July.
    27. Fisher, Jonas D M, 1999. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Heterogeneous Response of Firms to Monetary Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 187-211, May.
    28. Johannes F. Wieland, 2019. "Are Negative Supply Shocks Expansionary at the Zero Lower Bound?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 973-1007.
    29. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, July.
    30. Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2002. "Was Expansionary Monetary Policy Feasible during the Great Contraction? An Examination of the Gold Standard Constraint," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-28, January.
    31. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    32. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers under an Interest Rate Peg of Deterministic versus Stochastic Duration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1312, September.
    33. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2009. "Potential and natural output," 2009 Meeting Papers 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Acemoglu, Daron & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2011. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226002125, July.
    35. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    36. Rose, Jonathan D., 2010. "Hoover's Truce: Wage Rigidity in the Onset of the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 843-870, December.
    37. Hyeyoen Kim & Junyeup Kim & Jaeram Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on banking and finance stock prices in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(18), pages 1257-1261, December.
    38. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2015. "Labor Market Policies and the "Missing Deflation" Puzzle: Lessons from Hoover Policies during the U.S Great Depression," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 15.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    2. Yangyang Ji, 2021. "Are Technology Shocks More Expansionary at the ZLB?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(3), pages 296-317.
    3. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
    6. Tong, Bing, 2021. "The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Engin Kara & Jasmin Sin, 2018. "The Fiscal Multiplier in a Liquidity‐Constrained New Keynesian Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(1), pages 93-123, January.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe's monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 22-33.
    10. Yangyang Ji, 2019. "Are Supply-side Reforms Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(1), pages 68-83.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    12. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    14. Florin O. Bilbiie & Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2019. "Is Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 147-173, July.
    15. Lorant Kaszab, 2016. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and Labor Tax Cut Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 353-390, September.
    16. Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2018. "The state-dependent effects of tax shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 57-85.
    17. Yihao Xue & Qiaoyu Liang & Bing Tong, 2022. "The Effects of Energy Supply Shocks and Interest Rate Liberalization in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2022/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    18. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2012. "Labour Markets in Recession and Recovery: The UK and the USA in the 1920s and 1930s," CEH Discussion Papers 001, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:1:p:247-283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.