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The Divergent Signals about Labor Market Slack

Author

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  • Troy Gilchrist
  • Bart Hobijn

Abstract

A broad dashboard of indicators is sending mixed signals about the state of the labor market. Some indicators have deviated widely from their normal historical relationships since the onset of COVID-19. Because of the uneven economic impact of the pandemic, the labor force participation rate, payroll employment, and the share of job losers among the unemployed have provided more reliable signals about overall conditions than other components of the dashboard. They suggest that labor slack is higher than implied by the current headline unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Troy Gilchrist & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "The Divergent Signals about Labor Market Slack," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(15), pages 01-06, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:92358
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle L. Barnes & Ryan Chahrour & Giovanni P. Olivei & Gaoyan Tang, 2007. "A principal components approach to estimating labor market pressure and its implications for inflation," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Hess T. Chung & Bruce Fallick & Christopher J. Nekarda & David Ratner, 2014. "Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions," FEDS Notes 2014-05-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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