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Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Mahedy
  • Daniel J. Wilson

Abstract

Thanks in large part to recently enacted tax cuts, U.S. fiscal policy has taken a decidedly procyclical turn?providing stimulus when the economy is growing. In fact, the projected increase in the federal deficit over the next few years would represent the most procyclical fiscal policy stance since the Vietnam War. This matters because many recent studies have found that fiscal stimulus has a smaller impact when the economy is strong, implying that the near-term boost to GDP growth could be two-thirds or less of that from previous tax cuts.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Mahedy & Daniel J. Wilson, 2018. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00169
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2013. "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 89-142.
    3. Brian Lucking & Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "U.S. fiscal policy: headwind or tailwind?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july2.
    4. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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