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Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law

Author

Listed:
  • Mary C. Daly
  • John G. Fernald
  • Òscar Jordà
  • Fernanda Nechio

Abstract

The traditional relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun?s law appeared to break down during the Great Recession. This raised the question of whether this rule of thumb was still meaningful as a forecasting tool. However, recent revisions to GDP data show that its relation with unemployment followed a fairly typical cyclical pattern compared with past deep recessions and slow recoveries. The comparatively common patterns suggest that rumors of the death of Okun?s law during the Great Recession were greatly exaggerated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    2. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elva Bova & Christina Kolerus & Sampawende Tapsoba, 2015. "A fiscal job? An analysis of fiscal policy and the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    3. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law," CEPR Discussion Papers 17369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Porras, María Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2017. "Self-employment and Okun’s Law relationship: the Spanish case," GLO Discussion Paper Series 157, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    6. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    7. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    8. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2015. "Producto, desempleo y la Ley de Okun en la República Dominicana [Output, unemployment and Okun’s law in the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 63656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.
    10. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    11. Irina SyssoyevaMasson & João Sousa Andrade, 2017. "Are PIIGS so Different? An Empirical Analysis of Demand and Supply Shocks," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(2), pages 189-222, March.
    12. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 465-496, October.
    14. Milen V. Velev, 2014. "A Research on the Relationship between the Real Aggregate Output and the Unemployment Rate in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 58-91.

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