IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcpr/y1999p531-567.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Lagunoff
  • Stacey L. Schreft

Abstract

This article formalizes investor rationality and irrationality, exuberance and apprehension, to consider the implications of belief formation for the fragility of an economy's financial structure. The model presented generates a financial structure with portfolio linkages that make it susceptible to contagious financial crises, despite the absence of coordination failures. Investors forecast the likelihood of loss from contagion and may shift preemptively to safer portfolios, breaking portfolio linkages in the process. The entire financial structure collapses when the last group of investors reallocates their portfolios. If some investors are irrationally exuberant, the financial structure remains intact longer. In fact, financial collapse occurs sooner when almost all investors are rationally exuberant than when they are irrationally exuberant. Additionally, a financial crisis initiated by real shocks is indistinguishable from one caused solely by the presence of rationally apprehensive investors in a fundamentally sound economy. Policies that make portfolio linkages more resilient can improve welfare.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Lagunoff & Stacey L. Schreft, 1999. "Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 531-567.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:1999:p:531-567
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 220-264, July.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gary Gorton & Guillermo Ordo?ez, 2014. "Collateral Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 343-378, February.
    2. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2004. "Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 163-184, June.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Pauzner, Ady, 2004. "Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 151-183, November.
    4. Raffestin, Louis, 2014. "Diversification and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 85-106.
    5. Eric Friedman & Simon Johnson & Adam Landsberg, 2001. "Large-Scale Synchrony, Global Interdependence and Contagion," Departmental Working Papers 200103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    6. Theodoros Diasakos, 2008. "Comparative Statics of Asset Prices," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 72, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2011.
    7. Terhi Jokipii & Brian Lucey, 2005. "CEE Banking Sector Co-Movement: Contagion or Interdependence?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp077, IIIS.
    8. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2019. "Interconnectedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 520-538.
    9. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia," IMF Working Papers 2002/154, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Víctor A. Beker, 2020. "How to prevent a new global financial crisis," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4309, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    11. Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić Perić & Marina Matošec, 2022. "Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4511-4535, December.
    12. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 1999. "Pricing systemic crises: monetary and fiscal policy when savers are uncertain," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. David A. Marshall, 2001. "The crisis of 1998 and the role of the central bank," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q I), pages 2-23.
    14. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 220-264, July.
    15. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 166-188, April.
    16. James Bullard & George Evans, 2004. "Near-Rational Exuberance," 2004 Meeting Papers 465, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Diasakos, Theodoros M, 2013. "Comparative Statics of Asset Prices: the effect of other assets' risk," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-94, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    18. Ignacio Benito Amaro, 2020. "Evaluación Económica de pérdidas por enfermedades en bovinos: métodos de valuación de perdida," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4310, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    19. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Ivaschenko, Iryna, 2003. "Asian Flu or Wall Street virus? Tech and non-tech spillovers in the United States and Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 303-322, December.
    20. Liurui Deng & Yongbin Lv & Ye Liu & Yiwen Zhao, 2021. "Impact of Fintech on Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from China," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-27, May.
    21. Scott Freeman, 2002. "Payments and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 602-617, July.
    22. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    23. Mesly, Olivier, 2023. "Irrational exuberance and deception — Why markets spin out of control," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    24. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2001. "Competition, herd behavior, and credit cycles: evidence from major Swiss Banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 585-592.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Winkler, Bernhard, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 0026, European Central Bank.
    2. Yaron Leitner, 2004. "Financial networks: contagion, commitment, and private sector bailouts," Working Papers 02-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Michael J. Radzicki, 2003. "Mr. Hamilton, Mr. Forrester, and a Foundation for Evolutionary Economics," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 133-173, March.
    4. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2001. "Structure, behavior, and market power in an evolutionary labor market with adaptive search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 419-457, March.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Meissner, Thomas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2017. "Learning Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 273-288.
    7. Alexander L. Brown & Zhikang Eric Chua & Colin F. Camerer, 2009. "Learning and Visceral Temptation in Dynamic Saving Experiments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 197-231.
    8. Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2014. "Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 407-415.
    9. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 1999. "Pricing systemic crises: monetary and fiscal policy when savers are uncertain," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. J. Daniel Aromí, 2018. "GDP growth forecasts and information flows: Is there evidence of overreactions?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 122-139, June.
    11. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    12. Maryam Farboodi, 2014. "Intermediation and Voluntary Exposure to Counterparty Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, 2021. "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 414-433, June.
    14. Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael, 2004. "Heterogenous information about the term structure, least-squares learning and optimal rules for inflation targeting," Research Discussion Papers 23/2004, Bank of Finland.
    15. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
    16. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2015. "Learning and Model Validation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 45-82.
    17. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    18. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    19. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Kubler, Felix & Scheidegger, Simon, 2023. "Uniformly self-justified equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    21. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:1999:p:531-567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.