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Monetary policy and self-fulfilling expectations: the danger of forecasts

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

What rule should a central bank interested in inflation stability follow? Because monetary policy tends to work with lags, it is tempting to use inflation forecasts to generate policy advice. This article, however, suggests that the use of forecasts to drive policy is potentially destabilizing. The problem with forecast-based policy is that the economy becomes vulnerable to what economists term ?sunspot? fluctuations. These welfare-reducing fluctuations can be avoided by using a policy that puts greater weight on past, realized inflation rates rather than forecasted, future rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Monetary policy and self-fulfilling expectations: the danger of forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 9-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2001:i:qi:p:9-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc, 2007. "Price Stability And The Ecb'S Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 268-326, April.
    2. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
    3. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Assessing Money Supply Rules," Working Papers 2003_9, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2003.
    4. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.

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