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Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?

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  • Murat Tasci
  • Nicholas Zevanove

Abstract

We are now in one of the longest expansions on record. The recession that preceded that expansion was one of the worst in history. Are those two facts related? Some economists suggest they are, while others suggest it?s the other way around: Longer expansions lead to more severe recessions. We assess the evidence for these two hypotheses. We find clear evidence for the former and little for the latter. Deeper recessions are often followed by stronger recoveries, while longer and stronger expansions are not followed by deeper recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Tasci & Nicholas Zevanove, 2019. "Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2023. "Business Cycles and Low-Frequency Fluctuations in the US Unemployment Rate," Working Papers 23-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Stéphane Dupraz & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2019. "A Plucking Model of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 26351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bezankeng Njinju & Murat Tasci, 2021. "PPP Loans & State-level Employment Growth," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(20), pages 1-7, November.

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    Keywords

    recession; expansion; recovery;
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