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When Might the Federal Funds Rate Lift Off? Computing the Probabilities of Crossing Unemployment and Inflation Thresholds

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  • Edward S. Knotek
  • Saeed Zaman

Abstract

The Federal Open Market Committee has been providing guidance to help markets anticipate when it will begin raising the federal funds rate target. The most recent guidance suggests that the target will not change at least until after an unemployment or infl ation threshold is breached. We use a forecasting model to estimate when these thresholds are likely to be breached. We also consider how an infl ation fl oor would affect the timing of liftoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "When Might the Federal Funds Rate Lift Off? Computing the Probabilities of Crossing Unemployment and Inflation Thresholds," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00017
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saeed Zaman, 2013. "Improving inflation forecasts in the medium to long term," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov.
    2. Todd E. Clark, 2011. "Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 327-341, July.
    3. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2015(03), pages 1-6, March.
    2. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Investigating Predictors of Inflation in Nigeria: BMA and WALS Techniques," MPRA Paper 88773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    3. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.

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