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Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence

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  • López-Salido, J David
  • Gust, Christopher
  • Herbst, Edward

Abstract

This paper estimates a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon (FH) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model as well as other behavioral NK models. In the FH model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to substantial aggregate persistence without resorting to additional features such as habit persistence and price contracts indexed to lagged inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • López-Salido, J David & Gust, Christopher & Herbst, Edward, 2021. "Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16141
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Stéphane Dupraz & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2022. "Make-up Strategies with Finite Planning Horizons but Forward-Looking Asset Prices," Working papers 862, Banque de France.
    3. Dupraz, Stéphane & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2024. "Make-up strategies with finite planning horizons but infinitely forward-looking asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Lucian Briciu & Stefan Hohberger & Luca Onorante & Beatrice Pataracchia & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2023. "The ECB Strategy Review - Implications for the Space of Monetary Policy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 193, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Donald Coletti, 2023. "A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models," Discussion Papers 2023-23, Bank of Canada.
    6. Meggiorini, Greta, 2023. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finite-horizon planning; Learning; Monetary policy; New keynesian model; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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