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What past recoveries say about the outlook for New England

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  • Katharine L. Bradbury
  • Yolanda Kodrzycki

Abstract

New England lagged behind the national recovery in the mid 1970s but did better than average coming out of the 1982 recession. The regions strong recovery after 1982 was the result of increased defense contracts, a high-tech export orientation, and the waning of the 1970s energy price shock. What do those experiences suggest about the pace and character of the present recovery? ; Regression results indicate that the most important determinants of a states recovery are how well its key industries perform nationally, relative wage and energy cost changes, and the fiscal picture. New Englands industry mix, its pre-recession increases in real wages, state government spending cutbacks, and federal defense cuts all point to a 1991-94 recovery that will be slower than the national average.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharine L. Bradbury & Yolanda Kodrzycki, 1992. "What past recoveries say about the outlook for New England," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 15-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1992:i:sep:p:15-32
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/neer/neer1992/neer592b.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward Moscovitch, 1990. "The downturn in the New England economy: what lies behind it?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 53-65.
    2. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    3. Richard H. Mattoon & William A. Testa, 1992. "State and local governments' reaction to recession," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 16(Mar), pages 19-27.
    4. Yolanda K. Henderson, 1990. "Defense cutbacks and the New England economy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 3-24.
    5. Jane Sneddon Little, 1989. "The dollar, structural change and the New England miracle," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 47-57.
    6. Stephen K. McNees & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1991. "\"Whither New England\"?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 11-26.
    7. David G. Terkla & Peter B. Doeringer, 1991. "Explaining variations in employment growth: Structural and cyclical change among states and local areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 329-348, May.
    8. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    9. Eric Rosengren, 1990. "How diversified is New England?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-16.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Morris Grobar, 1996. "Comparing The New England And Southern California Regional Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 71-84, July.

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