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Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation

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  • R. Anton Braun

Abstract

Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will continue to put large and steady downward pressure on prices, interest rates, and output growth in future years.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Anton Braun, 2022. "Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2022(13), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:a00068:96691
    DOI: 10.29338/ph2022-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographics; prices; output; interest rates; economic growth; aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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