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Free Trade Zone of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method

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  • Possebom, Vitor Augusto

Abstract

I apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20th Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Trade Zone of Manaus (FTZM). I find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. My results suggest that this subsidy policy achieved its goal of promoting regional economic growth at the cost of provoking mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors. They also reject the view that an industrialization policy will benefit all economic sectors due to positive spill-overs of the manufacture sector that are strong enough to compensate for the negative effect of the mis-allocation of resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Possebom, Vitor Augusto, 2017. "Free Trade Zone of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(2), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:2:a:62251
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    2. Marta Castilho & Marta Menendez & Aude Sztulman, 2015. "Poverty and Inequality Dynamics in Manaus: Legacy of a Free Trade Zone ?," Working Papers DT/2015/18, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
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    5. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 707-720, October.
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    7. Aggarwal, Aradhna, 2012. "Social and Economic Impact of SEZs in India," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198077275.
    8. Ham, John C. & Swenson, Charles & İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Song, Heonjae, 2011. "Government programs can improve local labor markets: Evidence from State Enterprise Zones, Federal Empowerment Zones and Federal Enterprise Community," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 779-797.
    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Baptista Palazzi, Rafael, 2024. "The effect of oil discovery in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Emery, Thomas & Mélon, Lela & Spruk, Rok, 2023. "Does e-procurement matter for economic growth? Subnational evidence from Australia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 318-334.

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