IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fgv/epgrbe/v65y2011i1a1469.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Eficácia das intervenções do Banco Central do Brasil sobre a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio nominal

Author

Listed:
  • Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento
  • Plaga, Alessandra Ribeiro

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of instruments of intervention used by the Central Bank of Brazil over the conditional volatility of the nominal exchange rate. Central Bank of Brazil used as intervention instruments, standard instruments of the literature – such as interest rate and interventions in the spot market, and unusual instruments – such as public bonds indexed to the dollar and foreign exchange rates swaps. The conditional volatility of the exchange rate was modeled using an E-GARCH model, Nelson e CAo (1992). We used daily data of nominal exchange rate and the interventions for the period from January of 1999 to September of 2006. Our results showed that in all sample periods we study, including the ones with currency crisis, some instrument of intervention affected the conditional volatility of the nominal exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento & Plaga, Alessandra Ribeiro, 2011. "Eficácia das intervenções do Banco Central do Brasil sobre a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio nominal," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:y:2011:i:1:a:1469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/1469
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1993. "Does Central Bank Intervention Increase the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Vella, Francis, 1993. "A Simple Estimator for Simultaneous Models with Censored Endogenous Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(2), pages 441-457, May.
    3. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-235, April.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1988. "The Effectiveness of Foreign-Exchange Intervention: Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 2796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Font, Begoña, 1998. "Modelización de series temporales financieras. Una recopilación," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3664, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
    4. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with co-heteroscedasticity," CAMA Working Papers 2018-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E. H., 2001. "Non-ferrous metals price volatility: a component analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 199-207, September.
    6. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    7. Enrique Ter Horst & Abel Rodriguez & Henryk Gzyl & German Molina, 2012. "Stochastic volatility models including open, close, high and low prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 199-212, May.
    8. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Demmouche, Nacer & Touche, Nassim, 2018. "Bayesian MCMC analysis of periodic asymmetric power GARCH models," MPRA Paper 91136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September.
    10. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Heterogeneous information flows and intra-day volatility dynamics: evidence from the UK FTSE-100 stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 959-972.
    11. Zhang, Bo & Chan, Joshua C.C. & Cross, Jamie L., 2020. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1318-1328.
    12. repec:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:711-751 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    14. Ronald Mahieu & Peter C. Schotman, 1994. "Stochastic volatility and the distribution of exchange rate news," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    16. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2023. "Exact Likelihood for Inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility Models," GRIPS Discussion Papers 23-07, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    17. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Qiang Zhang & Rui Luo & Yaodong Yang & Yuanyuan Liu, 2018. "Benchmarking Deep Sequential Models on Volatility Predictions for Financial Time Series," Papers 1811.03711, arXiv.org.
    19. Zamzagul Sultanova & Galimzhan A. Pazilov & Lyailya Baibulekova & Gulzhakhan Kassymbekova & Gulnar Lukhmanova & Gulmira Issayeva & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of the Volatility Structures of the Stock Prices of Energy Companies Traded on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange and International Gold and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 21-30, January.
    20. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2011. "Bayesian estimation of an extended local scale stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 369-382, June.
    21. Madhusudan Karmakar, 2007. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk-return Relationship in the Indian Stock Market," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 8(1), pages 99-116, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:y:2011:i:1:a:1469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.