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Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty and Capital Controls Explain the High Level of Real Interest Rates in Brazil? Evidence from Panel Data

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  • Gonçalves, Fernando M
  • Holland, Marcio
  • Spacov, Andrei

Abstract

This paper tests the assertion, popularized by Arida, Bacha, and Lara-Resende (2005), that risks associated with the jurisdiction and currency inconvertibility are relevant determinants of the high level of short-term real interest rates in Brazil. The results are by and large unfavorable not only to their conjecture, but also to variants of their argument. The results further indicate that traditional monetary and fiscal factors are far more relevant to explain the level of short-term real interest rates than the binomial jurisdictional uncertainty/ currency inconvertibility is.

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  • Gonçalves, Fernando M & Holland, Marcio & Spacov, Andrei, 2007. "Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty and Capital Controls Explain the High Level of Real Interest Rates in Brazil? Evidence from Panel Data," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(1), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:61:y:2007:i:1:a:1015
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    Cited by:

    1. Thereza Balliester Reis, 2018. "Why Are Policy Real Interest Rates So High in Brazil? An Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank of Brazil’s Real Interest Rate," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 178-198, April.
    2. Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2012. "The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2012/062, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 524, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2021. "High Lending Interest Rates in Brazil: cost or concentration?," Working Papers Series 550, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Edmar L. Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, And Interest In Emerging Markets," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Vieira, Fabrício A.C. & Holland, Márcio & Resende, Marco F., 2012. "Financial dollarization and systemic risks: New empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1695-1714.
    7. World Bank, 2006. "Brazil : Interest Rates and Intermediation Spreads," World Bank Publications - Reports 21461, The World Bank Group.
    8. Márcio Holland, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Fear of Floating in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages 279-292.
    9. Adonias Evaristo da Costa Filho, 2017. "What Drives Long Term Real Interest Rates in Brazil?," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 14(6), pages 624-635, November.
    10. Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2014. "Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2014/084, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Paulo Chananeco F. de Barcellos Neto & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2006. "The Natural Rate Of Interest In Brazil Between 1999 And 2005," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 84, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Barcellos, Paulo, 2009. "The Natural Rate of Interested in Brazil Between 1999 and 2005," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(2), June.
    13. Bacha, Edmar & Holland, Marcio & Gonçalves, Fernando M., 2009. "High Interest Rates in Brazil: A Panel-Based Analysis," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(4), December.
    14. Márcio Holland & Edmar L. Bacha & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2007/294, International Monetary Fund.
    15. de Castro Marcus F., 2013. "Economic Development and the Legal Foundations of Regulation in Brazil," The Law and Development Review, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 61-115, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

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