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Outliers in eleven Finnish macroeconomic time series

Author

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  • Jussi Tolvi

    (Department of Economics, University of Turku, Finland)

Abstract

Outliers are detected from eleven monthly Finnish macroeconomic time series (from 1922 to 1996), and underlying reasons for the detected outliers suggested. Outliers are found in all of the series. The detected outliers seem to cluster together, both within and across series. Some of the detected outliers are also highly influential with respect to some nonlinearity tests, and the results can change in either direction (from significant nonlinearity to non-significant, or vice versa) after the outliers are taken into account. Mostly, however, the evidence for nonlinearity is reduced after the outliers are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Jussi Tolvi, 2001. "Outliers in eleven Finnish macroeconomic time series," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 14-32, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:14:y:2001:i:1:p:14-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Olivier Darne & Jean-Francois Hoarau, 2007. "The purchasing power parity in Australia: evidence from unit root test with structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 203-206.
    4. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
    5. Mohamed Ali Houfi & Ghassen El Montasser, 2010. "Effets des points aberrants sur les tests de normalité et de linéarité. Applications à la bourse de Tokyo," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(36), pages 15-51, June.
    6. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," Working Papers hal-04138871, HAL.
    7. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    8. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
    9. Darne, O. & Levy-Rueff, O. & Pop, A., 2013. "Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach," Working papers 426, Banque de France.
    10. Olivier Darné & Jean‐François Hoarau, 2007. "Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 383-395, October.
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    12. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2005. "Outliers and GARCH models in financial data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 347-352, March.
    13. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.
    14. Yaqoob, Tanzeela & Maqsood, Arfa, 2024. "The potency of time series outliers in volatile models: An empirical analysis of fintech, and mineral resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Olivier Darne & Laetitia Ripoll-Bresson, 2004. "Exchange rate regime classification and real performances: new empirical evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 21, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    16. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2008. "The impact of outliers on transitory and permanent components in macroeconomic time series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(60), pages 1-9.
    17. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
    18. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    19. Darné, Olivier & Levy-Rueff, Guy & Pop, Adrian, 2024. "The calibration of initial shocks in bank stress test scenarios: An outlier detection based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Halkos, George & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2016. "Exploring the effect of terrorist attacks on markets," MPRA Paper 71877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jean-François Goux, 2010. "Une approche déterministe du taux de change euro-dollar," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 35-51.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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