IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v68y2018i4p374-398.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Country Risk and Expected Returns Across Global Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Zaremba

    (Dubai Business School, University of Dubai, UAE
    Department of Investment and Capital Markets, Poznañ University of Economics and Business, Poland)

Abstract

Assessing and pricing country risk poses a considerable challenge to tactical asset allocation across national equity markets. This research examines the relationship between the country composite risk (together with its component risks related to sovereign credit, currency, banking sector, economic structure, and political situation) and expected returns, also identifying general implications for international investors. An equal-weighted portfolio of risky countries outperforms safe countries by approximately 0.50 percentage points per month. The application of this cross-sectional pattern, however, still poses a significant challenge for investment practice. The abnormal performance proves insignificant for capitalization-weighted and liquidity-weighted portfolios as well as within the subgroups of the full sample. Also, we observe that the profitability of the risk-based strategies has disappeared in the years following the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Zaremba, 2018. "Country Risk and Expected Returns Across Global Equity Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(4), pages 374-398, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:4:p:374-398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1415_374-398_zaremba_final_issue_4_2018_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    4. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2014. "Global Style Portfolios Based on Country Indices," MPRA Paper 53094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Balvers, Ronald J. & Wu, Yangru, 2006. "Momentum and mean reversion across national equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 24-48, January.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    7. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    8. Sanjeev Bhojraj, 2006. "Macromomentum: Returns Predictability in International Equity Indices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 429-451, January.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November.
    10. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Institute for Financial Research.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Dimic, Nebojsa & Orlov, Vitaly & Piljak, Vanja, 2015. "The political risk factor in emerging, frontier, and developed stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 239-245.
    13. Malin, Mirela & Bornholt, Graham, 2013. "Long-term return reversal: Evidence from international market indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-17.
    14. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
    15. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    16. Scott Willenbrock, 2011. "Diversification Return, Portfolio Rebalancing, and the Commodity Return Puzzle," Papers 1109.1256, arXiv.org.
    17. Brown, Stephen & Yan Du, Daphne & Rhee, S. Ghon & Zhang, Liang, 2008. "The returns to value and momentum in Asian Markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 79-88, June.
    18. Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
    19. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azra Zaimovic & Adna Omanovic & Almira Arnaut-Berilo, 2021. "How Many Stocks Are Sufficient for Equity Portfolio Diversification? A Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, November.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    2. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Long, Huaigang & Mercik, Aleksander & Szczygielski, Jan J., 2021. "Up or down? Short-term reversal, momentum, and liquidity effects in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Adam Zaremba, 2016. "Has the Long-Term Reversal Reversed? Evidence from Country Equity Indices," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 88-103, March.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Raza, Muhammad Wajid, 2020. "The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 177-199.
    8. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet, 2018. "Size matters everywhere: Decomposing the small country and small industry premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Herding for profits: Market breadth and the cross-section of global equity returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 348-364.
    10. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    11. Zaremba, Adam & Czapkiewicz, Anna, 2017. "Digesting anomalies in emerging European markets: A comparison of factor pricing models," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Zaremba, Adam, 2019. "Price range and the cross-section of expected country and industry returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 174-189.
    13. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    14. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2021. "The alpha momentum effect in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    16. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Alpha momentum and alpha reversal in country and industry equity indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 144-161.
    17. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Osman, Mohamed, 2019. "Picking winners to pick your winners: The momentum effect in commodity risk factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    19. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Zaremba, Adam & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Maydybura, Alina & Czapkiewicz, Anna & Bagheri, Noushin, 2020. "Dissecting anomalies in Islamic stocks: Integrated or segmented pricing?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    country risk; sovereign risk; political risk; currency risk; banking sector risk; economic risk; country asset allocation; country selection strategies; return predictability; international asset pricing; cross-section of returns; international diversific;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:4:p:374-398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.