Trade Interaction between Chinese Regions and Russia: The Border Effect

The paper analyzes the dynamics and structure of trade interaction between Chinese regions and Russia using official Chinese data and assesses the border effects for export and import flows. The analysis shows that Chinese imports from Russia exhibit a much more uneven distribution across Chinese regions than exports. The results of the gravity model estimation indicate that the size of the border effect for exports of Chinese regions to Russia was larger compared to trade barriers with other countries. At the same time, the hurdles impeding the access of Russian production to Chinese regional markets expressed in the ad-valorem tariff equivalent were higher than for other countries. The estimates reveal that Russian exports to Chinese regions have been experiencing higher barriers in recent years than Chinese regional exports to Russia. The findings suggest that leveling barriers would reinforce the access of Chinese coastal regions to the Russian market, making exports to Russia even less evenly distributed across Chinese regions. A substantial reduction of barriers is likely to increase Russian imports in China thanks to the growing flows of Russian goods to virtually all Chinese regions. Accordingly, Russian exporters need to diversify their supply across Chinese regions so as to bypass the middlemen and tap new regional markets in China