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Türkiye’de Faiz Ve Kur Politikalarının İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Süleyman DEĞİRMEN

    (Mersin University)

  • Filiz ELMAS

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

Türkiye’de faiz kur makası nedeni ile 1989’da başlayan ve spekülatif nitelikte olan kısa vadeli sermaye girişi döviz arzını artırarak kuru düşürmüş ve ulusal paranın değer kazanmasına yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmada amaç, döviz kurundaki değişmelerin ihracat üzerinde bir dışlama (crowding-out) etkisine neden olup olmadığını test etmektir. Keynesyen açık ekonomi hipotezine göre, büyük miktardaki bütçe açıkları, faiz oranını artırarak, ulusal paranın değer kazanmasına, böylece yatırımlar ve net ihracatı dışlama etkisine sahiptir. Bütçe açıkları, Türkiye’de uzun yıllar boyunca uygulandığı gibi ya yurtdışından yapılan borçlanmalarla, ya da net yurtiçi tasarruflarla finanse edilmiştir. Hazine, bütçe açığını karşılamak amacıyla, mevcut ulusal fonlara daha yüksek oranda ihaleler açarak ulusal faiz oranının artması yönünde bir baskı yaratmıştır. Söz konusu gelişme, bir yandan, özel sektöre akması gereken fonları kamuya aktarmakta diğer yandan da sermaye girişi sağlayarak ulusal paranın değerlenmesine neden olmaktadır. Sayısal analizde, 1989.I-2003.IV dönemi için üçer aylık verilerle VAR (Vektör Oto Regresyon) yöntemi kullanılacaktır. Yapılan test sonuçlarına göre, aşırı değerlenen döviz kurunun (yani, TL’nin aşırı değerlenmesi ile) net ihracatı olumsuz etkilediği, dolayısıyla da ekonomide dışlama etkisi yarattığıdır.

Suggested Citation

  • Süleyman DEĞİRMEN & Filiz ELMAS, 2008. "Türkiye’de Faiz Ve Kur Politikalarının İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 19(69), pages 47-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:19:y:2008:i:69:p:47-66
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10675
    Note: [English Title] The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export [English Abstract] Short-term foreign capital investment, which started from 1989 and has been in the speculative form, has increased capital inflows leading lower exchange rate (i.e., appreciation of TLs). Thus, the aim of this study is to test of whether changes in FX rate crowds out net export. The argument against government budget deficits is that they crowd out the investment or export sector, by generating upward pressure on interest rates. The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis and the Conventional [Keynesian] Open Economy Hypothesis, (COEH), do not agree on the argument, and thus, researchers have sought to choose between these hypotheses. For the period of 1989.I-2003.VI, the results from the impulse response function presented in this paper support the COEH with the following findings. These results indicate that increasing budget deficits raise real interest rates as the Turkish Treasury bids on domestic funds to finance government budget deficits, which in turn attracts foreign short-term capital and results in an appreciation of the domestic currency. In sum, persistent budget deficits have crowded out investment and net exports, despite the effects of capital inflows, which dampen the interest rate impact of deficits. [English Keywords] Short Run Capital Movements, Crowding-Out Effect, Interest and Foreign Exchange Regimes
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    References listed on IDEAS

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