The War’s Impact on Ukraine’s Agricultural Production – Projections Vs. Real Data

Purpose: Agricultural production of Ukraine’s is vitally important either for Ukraine itself or its partners all over the world. Therefore, the aims of the research were to analyse the agricultural production of Ukraine, including its natural and climatic conditions, and the country’s production value by kinds, encompassing those important for the Ukrainian exports, as well as to compare both the projected trends and values for the said production with the real – time ones, in order to assess the war’s impact. Design/Methodology/Approach: Such methods of scientific research as empirical and comparative analysis, time series analysis, modelling and forecasting, method of trends as well as textual and tabular methods added by bar charts for better data presentation and comparison were used while conducting the research presented in the given paper. The data analysed in the article were taken from the official web page of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The time frame under analysis is 2000/2010 – 2020/2022, depending on the data availability. Findings: The difference between the projected and real – time data values are especially big in the cases of maize, wheat, sunflower seeds and barley, implying, that war has influenced tremendously the production amounts of the agro products under research, nevertheless being one of the factors impacted the said production as it’s rather the combination of different factors influenced the production amount under research, with the war being the most powerful among them. The production potential of Ukraine's agriculture has been influenced by the war greatly in a negative way though remaining strong enough even on the global level. Practical Implications: The all-encompassing analysis approach applied in the conducted research would be of great use for the scientists in general and researchers interested in similar topics in particular, while the information and data presented in the article would be useful for educators of all the levels as a helping tool in their lessons/lectures/seminars conduction. The presented research is interesting and useful for big and small agricultural companies, including family farmers, administrative bodies officials connected either with agriculture or agro products trade, big and small firms indulged in international trade in general and agro products one in particular, politicians and decision makers, as well as beginners and experienced statisticians and data analysts. Originality/Value: In the presented research it was attempted to make a general analysis for the agro production of Ukraine starting from its natural and climatic conditions description through the soils availability research to the agricultural production of Ukraine by kinds in general and the ones important for the agro exports of Ukraine in particular, attempting to compare the projected trends and values for the said production amounts with the real – time ones, which, in turn, can be considered the novelty approach of the research presented in the given paper.