IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/journl/vxxivy2021i2bp1025-1040.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Primary Housing Market in the Context of Wages and Creditworthiness in Selected Cities in Poland in the Years 2006-2019

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Kokot

Abstract

Purpose: The paper presents the evolution of average unit prices of apartments in selected primary local markets in Poland in 2006-2019. The period covers the end of the price increase phase, their correction, and then stabilization and another upward phase. A characteristic feature of the study is that prices of apartments were presented not only in nominal terms, but also in several real term approaches. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was conducted using publicly available data on residential prices in selected cities. Prices were adjusted in a traditional way, i.e. by means of inflation indices, but also through the perspective of salary growth and creditworthiness. The results were presented graphically by means of charts. Findings: It turns out that the above approach to the evolution of housing prices may lead to conclusions that are quite different from the stereotypical ones concerning the assessment of the housing market situation, its forecasts, as well as the assessment of threats and consequences of relations among prices viewed in varying ways. In particular, it has been shown that the observed tendencies do not seem favorable, since they lead to the perception of an apartment as an exceptionally expensive good, which, unfortunately, will not become apparent until turbulence of interest rates and income hit the market. Practical Implications: The results of the research can be applied to forecasts of housing market trends and are particularly useful to developers, banks, realtors, potential apartment buyers as well as the government bodies responsible for housing policy. Originality/Value: Similar research has not yet been conducted in the local housing markets in Poland. The conclusions from the study can provide an important signal regarding the direction of changes on the housing market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Kokot, 2021. "Primary Housing Market in the Context of Wages and Creditworthiness in Selected Cities in Poland in the Years 2006-2019," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2B), pages 1025-1040.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:2b:p:1025-1040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ersj.eu/journal/2323/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krzysztof Surowka & Joanna Wyrobek & Marcin Surowka, 2020. "The Condition of Polish Housing Against the Background of Selected European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 469-482.
    2. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    3. Radoslaw Wolniak & Marcin Olkiewicz & Marta Szymczewska & Anna Olkiewicz, 2020. "The Functioning of the Real Estate Market: Dynamics of Price Formation and the Sale of Apartments," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 281-307.
    4. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.
    5. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-197, September.
    6. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    7. Ireneusz Dabrowski & Lukasz Mach & Lukasz Mikolajczyk & Arkadiusz Kuswik, 2020. "Correlation of Economic Development of Countries with the Potential of their Housing Real Estate Markets: A Case Study in the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 660-678.
    8. Valerii O. Omelchuk, 2018. "Effectiveness of the Housing Policy: A Comparative Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 383-392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi Wu & Nicole Lux, 2018. "U.K. House Prices: Bubbles or Market Efficiency? Evidence from Regional Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Kokot Sebastian, 2018. "An Attempt to Identify Social – Economic Factors in the Levels Of Property Prices in Chosen Cities in Poland," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 26(3), pages 93-104, September.
    3. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    4. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    5. Alberto Montagnoli & Jun Nagaysu, 2013. "An investigation of housing affordability in the UK regions," Working Papers 1316, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    6. Erdem Basci & Ismail Saglam, 2008. "On Roots of Housing Bubbles," Working Papers 0803, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Christophe Andr頍 & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2127-2138, June.
    8. John Fry & McMillan David, 2015. "Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1002152-100, December.
    9. Holinski, N. & Vermeulen, R., 2009. "The international wealth effect : a global error-correcting analysis," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    11. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2014. "Aggregate and regional house price to earnings ratio dynamics in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(13), pages 2916-2927, October.
    12. I-Chun Tsai, 2015. "Monetary policy and bubbles in the national and regional UK housing markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(8), pages 1471-1488, June.
    13. Montagnoli, Alberto & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "UK house price convergence clubs and spillovers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-58.
    14. Nils Holinski & Robert Vermeulen, 2012. "The international wealth channel: a global error-correcting analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 985-1010, December.
    15. I-Chun Tsai, 2017. "The housing market and excess monetary liquidity in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 599-615, September.
    16. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Inflation and Bubbles in the Japanese Condominium Market," MPRA Paper 71192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    18. Rose Neng Lai & Robert Van Order, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Property Market in China," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(3), pages 359-397.
    19. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Hsiao-Jung Teng & Chin-Oh Chang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2017. "Housing bubble contagion from city centre to suburbs," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1463-1481, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate market; real housing prices; Poland.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:2b:p:1025-1040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersj.eu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.