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Unveiling the Dynamics: Exploring the Relationship between Emerging Stock Market Prices and Macroeconomic Indicators through ARDL Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nihat Gümüþ

    (Ýbn Haldun University, Department of Management, Ýstanbul, Türkiye)

  • Murtala Mustapha Baba

    (Ýbn Haldun University, Department of Management, Ýstanbul, Türkiye)

Abstract

Using a panel ARDL model, this study examines the relationship between stock prices and prices in other marketplaces. Examining data for 19 emerging market nations from January 2004 to December 2022, the study investigates how gold prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation affect stock prices. With the exception of gold, the data show a persistently negative association between the variables in the long run. Short-term impacts are negligible overall, with the exception of gold's drawbacks. The 2008 global financial crisis had a short- and long-term negative impact on emerging market stock markets. The COVID-19 epidemic first caused stock market returns to decline, but eventually these effects reverse. In order to promote long-term growth in stock markets, this study emphasizes the significance of prudent fiscal policies meant to lessen government domination in financial markets and solid monetary policies centered on price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Nihat Gümüþ & Murtala Mustapha Baba, 2024. "Unveiling the Dynamics: Exploring the Relationship between Emerging Stock Market Prices and Macroeconomic Indicators through ARDL Analysis," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 24-49, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:16:y:2024:i:1:p:24-49
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging stock markets; gold prices; exchange rate; inflation; interest rate; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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