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El ciclo económico de la productividad y su relación con el ciclo político en México, 1993.1 - 2014.4

Author

Listed:
  • Vicente Germán-Soto

    (Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila)

  • Cesáreo Gámez Garza

    (Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León)

Abstract

The political-business cycle (PBC) theory sustains that economies are positively influenced in the last year of each government administration and also they tend to slowdown in the first year. To investigate this hypothesis, we analyze the cycle of productivity of the manufacturing industry in Mexico along 1993.1-–2014.4. Results from dynamic models indicate that strength of productivity is relatively minor for the quarters 1 and 4, a finding that is related to the political cycle because elasticity also falls in the quarters of the first year of government and increases in the last.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicente Germán-Soto & Cesáreo Gámez Garza, 2017. "El ciclo económico de la productividad y su relación con el ciclo político en México, 1993.1 - 2014.4," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 32(1), pages 65-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:32:y:2017:i:1:p:65-94
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    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/3/3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Navia, Patricio & Eyzaguirre, Nicolás & Olivari, Jocelyn & Briones, Ignacio & Benavente, José Miguel & Aninat, Cristóbal, 2010. "The Political Economy of Productivity: The Case of Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1124, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    4. Cristobal Aninat & Jose Miguel Benavente & Ignacio Briones & Nicolas Eyzaguirre & Patricio Navia & Jocelyn Olivari, 2010. "The Political Economy of Productivity. The Case of Chile," Research Department Publications 4662, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    6. Lee J. Alston & Bernardo Mueller & Marcus André Melo & Carlos Pereira, 2010. "The Political Economy of Productivity in Brazil," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5338, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political-business cycle; productivity; unit roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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