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Precious metal prices: a tale of four US recessions

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Agnese
  • Pedro Garcia del Barrio
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • Fernando Perez de Gracia

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions. Design/methodology/approach - Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices. Findings - The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era. Originality/value - Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Agnese & Pedro Garcia del Barrio & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2024. "Precious metal prices: a tale of four US recessions," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(5), pages 1012-1022, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:sef-09-2023-0550
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-09-2023-0550
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian M. Lucey & Sile Li, 2015. "What precious metals act as safe havens, and when? Some US evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 35-45, January.
    2. Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Persistence in trends and cycles of gold and silver prices: Evidence from historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 345-354.
    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Trends and cycles in historical gold and silver prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 98-109.
    4. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Yao, Yiran & Faff, Robert, 2016. "Diamonds vs. precious metals: What shines brightest in your investment portfolio?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Kucher, Oleg & McCoskey, Suzanne, 2017. "The long-run relationship between precious metal prices and the business cycle," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 263-275.
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    8. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Maadid, Alanoud Ali S. & Hoon Kang, Sang, 2020. "Dynamic risk spillovers and portfolio risk management between precious metals and global foreign exchange markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
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    10. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precious metal prices; US economic recessions; Persistence; COVID-19; F10; G10; G11; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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