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Financial development, trade and growth triangle: the case of India

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  • Salih Turan Katircioglu
  • Neslihan Kahyalar
  • Hasret Benar

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the possible co‐integration and the direction of causality between financial development, international trade and economic growth in India. Design/methodology/approach - Annual data covering the 1965‐2004 period have been used to investigate co‐integration and Granger causality tests between financial development, international trade, and growth after employing unit root tests to see if the variables under consideration are stationary. Findings - Results reveal that there is a long‐run equilibrium relationship between financial development, international trade and real income growth in the case of India. Furthermore, unidirectional causality was investigated that runs from real income to exports and imports, from exports to imports, M2 and domestic credits, from M2 to imports, from imports to domestic credits. Bidirectional causality has also been obtained between real income and M2, and between real income and domestic credits. Finally, no direction of causality has been obtained between M2 and domestic credits. Research limitations/implications - Expanded data can be used for further comparison. Practical implications - This study has shown that the supply‐leading and the demand‐following hypotheses cannot be inferred for the Indian economy alone themselves. And furthermore, the export‐led and the import‐led hypotheses again cannot be inferred for the Indian economy based on the sample period, 1965‐2004. Originality/value - This study is the first of its kind which investigates the possible co‐integration and the direction of causality between the financial development, international trade and economic growth triangle not only in the case of India but also in the relevant literature to the best of one's knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Salih Turan Katircioglu & Neslihan Kahyalar & Hasret Benar, 2007. "Financial development, trade and growth triangle: the case of India," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(9), pages 586-598, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:34:y:2007:i:9:p:586-598
    DOI: 10.1108/03068290710778615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doyle Eleanor, 2001. "Export-Output Causality and the Role of Exports in Irish Growth: 1950-1997," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 31-54.
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    1. Mahmoud Arayssi & Ali Fakih, 2015. "Institutions and development in MENA region: evidence from the manufacturing sector," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(8), pages 717-732, August.
    2. Ortiz, Cristian & Alvarado, Rafael & Salinas, Aldo, 2019. "The effect of military spending on output: New evidence at the global and country group levels using panel data cointegration techniques," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 402-414.
    3. Mehmet Zeki AK & Veysel İnal, 2019. "Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(0), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Arayssi, Mahmoud & Fakih, Ali, 2017. "Finance–growth nexus in a changing political region: How important was the Arab Spring?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 106-123.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    6. Yixing Yang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Salma Karim, 2021. "Do Tourism and Institutional Quality Asymmetrically Effects on FDI Sustainability in BIMSTEC Countries: An Application of ARDL, CS-ARDL, NARDL, and Asymmetric Causality Test," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-29, September.
    7. Nilotpal Goswami, 2013. "Determinants of Trade Development: Panel Evidence from South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 17-33, March.
    8. Muhammad Yusuf Amin & Syed Imran Khan & Noor Hassan, 2019. "Does Banking Sector Development have any Association with Economic Growth and Interest Rates in Pakistan?," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 100-107, March.
    9. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Naseer, Ahsan & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Li, Jing-Ping, 2020. "Double jeopardy of resources and investment curse in South Asia: Is technology the only way out?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Mahmoud Arayssi & Ali Fakih, 2015. "Institutions and development in MENA region: evidence from the manufacturing sector," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 717-732, August.
    12. Salih Katircioğlu & Aleksandr Zabolotnov, 2020. "Role of financial development in economic globalization: evidence from global panel," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 371-377, March.
    13. Nenavath Sreenu, 2019. "An Econometric Time-Series Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship among Trade, Financial Development and Economic Growth in India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 155-165, February.
    14. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
    15. YAĞAR EGİLMEZ, Funda, 2020. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Airline Transport, Export Volume And Economic Growth: Evidence From Usa," Academic Review of Humanities and Social Sciences, Bursa Teknik Üniversitesi, vol. 3(2), pages 466-482.
    16. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu (Alexandru) & Ion Dobre, 2013. "The Impact of Unemployment Rate on the Size of Romanian Shadow Economy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 578-607, September.
    17. Qazi Hye & Wee-Yeap Lau & Marie-Aimée Tourres, 2014. "Does economic liberalization promote economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2097-2119, July.
    18. Najia Saqib, 2015. "Review of Literature on Finance-Growth Nexus," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11.
    19. Micheal Kofi Boachie & Martin Ruzima & Mustapha Immurana, 2020. "The Concurrent Effect of Financial Development and Trade Openness on Private Investment in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 190-220, December.
    20. Raghutla CHANDRASHEKAR & T. SAMPATH & Krishna Reddy CHITTEDI, 2018. "Financial development, trade openness and growth in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 113-124, Spring.
    21. Tronzano, Marco, 2011. "“Finance and Growth: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence for the Indian Economy” - Finanza e crescita: un riesame dell’evidenza empirica nel caso dell’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 329-364.

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