IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijoemp/ijoem-09-2013-0145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation, its volatility and the inflation-growth tradeoff in India

Author

Listed:
  • Raghbendra Jha
  • Varsha S. Kulkarni

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to amend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to include inflation volatility. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for ordinary least squares and autoregressive distributed lags (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using error correction mechanism (ECM) models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility alone (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility are identified. To the best of the authors knowledge this is the first paper to augment the NKPC to include inflation volatility. Design/methodology/approach - – Recent analysis has indicated the importance of inflation volatility for the monetary transmission mechanism in India (Kapur and Behera, 2012). In the analysis of such monetary policy mechanisms the NKPC has proved to be a useful tool. Thus Patra and Ray (2010) for India and Brissimis and Magginas (2008) for the USA find considerable support for the standard NKPC. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize and integrate these two models by extending the standard NKPC framework to include inflation volatility and test its significance for the case of India. Findings - – In the case of inflation volatility output gap, lagged output gap and lagged inflation volatility are all insignificant. The level of inflation has a negative significant impact whereas the level of expected inflation has a positive and significant impact. In the case of expected inflation volatility lagged output gap has a negative and significant impact, the price level has a positive and significant impact whereas expected price has a negative and weakly significant impact. ECM reveals change in inflation variability falls significantly with lagged inflation volatility and lagged inflation and less significantly with change in expected inflation. It rises with lagged expected inflation although the coefficient is only weakly significant. Lagged output gap and change in output gap are insignificant. Originality/value - – This paper makes two original contributions. First, it extends the New Keynesian framework to include inflation volatility. Second, it estimates this model for India. To the best of the authors knowledge this is the first paper to make these contributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghbendra Jha & Varsha S. Kulkarni, 2015. "Inflation, its volatility and the inflation-growth tradeoff in India," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 350-361, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-09-2013-0145
    DOI: 10.1108/IJoEM-09-2013-0145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2013-0145/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2013-0145/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2013-0145?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2011. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 959-992, August.
    2. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Cointegration," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 5, pages 57-72, Springer.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    4. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Kapur, Muneesh & Behera, Harendra, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model," MPRA Paper 70631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:een:camaaa:2012-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Raghbendra Jha & Varsha S. Kulkarni, 2012. "Inflation Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India," ASARC Working Papers 2012-11, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    3. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    4. Sveen, Tommy, 2014. "Capital accumulation, sectoral heterogeneity and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-28.
    5. McKnight, Stephen, 2018. "Investment And Forward-Looking Monetary Policy: A Wicksellian Solution To The Problem Of Indeterminacy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1345-1369, July.
    6. McKnight, Stephen, 2017. "Are Consumption Taxes Preferable To Income Taxes For Preventing Macroeconomic Instability?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 1023-1058, June.
    7. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    9. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    10. Araújo, Eurilton, 2016. "Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in a small-open economy with sticky wages and prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 16-32.
    11. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    12. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Chu Shiou-Yen & Shane Christopher, 2017. "Using the hybrid Phillips curve with memory to forecast US inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "The empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips curve using survey forecasts of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2439-2450.
    15. Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz, 2013. "The Taylor principle in a medium-scale macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 3034-3043.
    16. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & G. S. Tavlas, 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 467-481, October.
    17. Andrew Phiri, 2012. "Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 247-269, July.
    18. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kitney, Paul, 2018. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 194-207.
    20. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. Christopher Tsoukis & George Kapetanios & Joseph Pearlman, 2011. "Elusive Persistence: Wage And Price Rigidities, The New Keynesian Phillips Curve And Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 737-768, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; India; Inflation volatility; ARDL model; ECM model; Output gap; E31; E32; E42; E44;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-09-2013-0145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.