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Macroeconomic effects of household debt: an empirical analysis

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  • Yun K. Kim

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Boston, MA, USA)

Abstract

Multi-equation econometric frameworks are used to investigate the impact of household debt on GDP in the US. In the vector autoregression analysis capturing the transitory feedback effects, we observe a bidirectional positive feedback process between aggregate income and debt. According to the estimation of vector error correction models, there are negative long-run relationships between household debt and output. These empirical results provide a support for the view of the debt-driven business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun K. Kim, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of household debt: an empirical analysis," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 127-150, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p127-150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Dünhaupt, Petra & Hein, Eckhard, 2018. "Financialisation, distribution & the macroeconomic regimes before & after the crisis: A post-Keynesian view on Denmark, Estonia & Latvia," IPE Working Papers 104/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. Eckhard Hein & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Pasquale Tridico, 2021. "Welfare models and demand-led growth regimes before and after the financial and economic crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 1196-1223, October.
    4. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    5. Karsten Kohler & Benjamin Tippet & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 461-490, December.
    6. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    7. Maria Cristina Barbieri Goes & Joana David Avritzer, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Distribution and Autonomous Demand in the US," Working Papers 2307, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2023. "Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 317-335.
    11. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2016. "A Minskyan criticism on the shareholder pressure approach of financialisation," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 53, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    12. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2017. "Rising wage dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers and market concentration: The case of the USA, 1966-2011," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 62, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    13. Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & Abd Halim Ahmad & Jan M Podivinsky, 2017. "Credit and the housing boom in Malaysa: a come back?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 110-115.
    14. Hein, Eckhard, 2020. "Financialisation and stagnation: A macroeconomic regime perspective," IPE Working Papers 149/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    15. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2019. "Consumption dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers and rising market concentration in the USA: 1984-2011," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 72, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    16. Hein, Eckhard, 2018. "Inequality and growth: Marxian and post-Keynesian/Kaleckian perspectives on distribution and growth regimes before and after the Great Recession," IPE Working Papers 96/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    17. Filippo Gusella, 2019. "Modelling Minskyan financial cycles with fundamentalist and extrapolative price strategies: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter approach," Working Papers - Economics wp2019_24.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    18. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; business cycles; financial instability hypothesis; cointegration; VAR; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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