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The US economy since the crisis: slow recovery and secular stagnation

Author

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  • Robert A. Blecker

    (American University, Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

The US economy has experienced a slowdown in its long-term growth and job creation that predates the Great Recession. The stagnation of output growth stems mainly from the depressing effects of rising inequality on aggregate demand, while both increased inequality and the delinkage of employment from output have their roots in profound structural changes to the US industrial structure and international position. Stagnation tendencies were temporarily offset by debt-financed household spending before the financial crisis, after which households became more financially constrained. Meanwhile, fiscal policy has shifted toward austerity while business investment has failed to keep up with the boom in corporate profits in spite of low interest rates. Slower US growth in turn exacerbates the global slowdown as it implies smaller injections of demand into global export markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "The US economy since the crisis: slow recovery and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 203-214, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:13:y:2016:i:2:p203-214
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Hein & Petra Dünhaupt & Ayoze Alfageme & Marta Kulesza, 2017. "Financialisation and distribution in three main Eurozone countries from a Kaleckian perspective: the US, the UK and Sweden compared – before and after the crisis," Working Papers 9/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    2. Eckhard Hein, 2018. "Stagnation policy in the Eurozone and economic policy alternatives: A Steindlian/neo-Kaleckian perspective," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 44(3), pages 315-348.
    3. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    4. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    5. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    6. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Stagnation policy in the Eurozone and economic policy alternatives," FMM Working Paper 05-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Hein, Eckhard & Prante, Franz & Bramucci, Alessandro, 2022. "Financialisation and the potentials for a progressive equality-, sustainability- and domestic demand-led regime: A post-Keynesian simulation approach," IPE Working Papers 192/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Jon D. Wisman & Aaron Pacitti, 2017. "Guaranteed Employment and Universal Child Care For a New Social Contract," Working Papers 2017-05, American University, Department of Economics.
    9. Blecker, Robert A. & Moreno Brid, Juan Carlos & Salat, Isabel, 2017. "Trumping the NAFTA renegotiation An alternative policy framework for Mexican-United States cooperation and economic convergence," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 42579, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2023. "The decoupling between labour compensation and productivity in high‐income countries: Why is the nexus broken?," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 425-463, June.
    11. Nishi, Hiroshi & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2020. "Distribution shocks in a Kaleckian model with hysteresis and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 465-479.
    12. Hein, Eckhard, 2017. "Financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation: The role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007-9," IPE Working Papers 90/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2024. "Secular stagnation: Is immigration part of the solution?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1426-1449, March.
    14. Nikolas Schiozer & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Michel Alexandre, 2024. "Heterogeneity in pricing behavior in hybrid DSGE-ABM macrodynamics," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_26, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    15. Eckhard Hein & Petra Dünhaupt & Ayoze Alfageme & Marta Kulesza, 2017. "Financialisation and distribution in three main Eurozone countries from a Kaleckian perspective: France, Germany and Spain compared – before and after the crisis," Working Papers 8/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    16. Hein, Eckhard & Dünhaupt, Petra & Alfageme, Ayoze & Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Financialisation and distribution in the US, the UK, Spain, Germany, Sweden and France: Before and after the crisis," IPE Working Papers 85/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    17. Riccardo Pariboni & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Pasquale Tridico, 2020. "When Melius Abundare Is No Longer True: Excessive Financialization and Inequality as Drivers of Stagnation," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 216-242, April.
    18. Andre M. Marques & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2021. "Testing for Granger Causality in Quantiles Between the Wage Share and Capacity Utilization," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_03, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    19. Eckhard Hein & Franz Prante & Alessandro Bramucci, 2023. "Demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism and a progressive equality-, sustainability- and domestic demand-led alternative: A post-Keynesian simulation approach," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(305), pages 181-202.
    20. Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2021. "What has driven the delinking of wages from productivity? A political economy-based investigation for high-income economies," Working Papers PKWP2104, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    21. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US economy; secular stagnation; jobless recovery; financial crisis; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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