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Effects of International Food Price Shocks on Political Institutions in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from an International Food Net-Export Price Index

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  • Arezki, Rabah
  • Brueckner, Markus

Abstract

We examine the effects of variations in the international food prices on political institutions in low-income countries. Our empirical analysis exploits that the economic impact of changes in the international food prices differs across countries depending on whether countries are net food importers or exporters. We construct an international food net-export price index that captures this heterogeneity. Our panel fixed effects analysis yields that in low-income countries within-country variations in the international food net-export price index are significantly negatively related to democratic institutions. We further explore the mechanisms driving this relationship along the economic and the conflict dimensions.

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  • Arezki, Rabah & Brueckner, Markus, 2014. "Effects of International Food Price Shocks on Political Institutions in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from an International Food Net-Export Price Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 142-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:61:y:2014:i:c:p:142-153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.04.009
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    3. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    4. Kazeem Bello Ajide & Olorunfemi Yasiru Alimi, 2023. "Inflation, inflation volatility and terrorism in Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 493-509, January.
    5. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The Impact of Food Prices on Conflict Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 547-560, March.
    7. Isabelle Cadoret & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Véronique Thelen, 2017. "The Diabolical Spiral: Food Prices and Civil Conflicts," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-17, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    8. Qifeng Yang & Pingyu Zhang & Zuopeng Ma & Daqian Liu & Yongjia Guo, 2022. "Agricultural Economic Resilience in the Context of International Food Price Fluctuation—An Empirical Analysis on the Main Grain–Producing Areas in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Calderon,Cesar & Nguyen,Ha Minh, 2015. "Do capital inflows boost growth in developing countries ? evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7298, The World Bank.
    10. von Prollius Michael & Schnabl Gunther, 2016. "Geldpolitik, Arabellion und Flüchtlingskrise: Die sehr lockere Geldpolitik der großen Industrieländer kommt in Form der Flüchtlingskrise auf Europa zurück," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 299-320, December.
    11. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    12. Derrill D. Watson, 2017. "The political economy of food price policy during the global food price crisis of 2006-2008," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(3), pages 497-509, June.
    13. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera‐Crichton & Brittany Tarufelli, 2022. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and political transitions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 465-493, July.
    14. Farley, Joshua & Costanza, Robert & Flomenhoft, Gary & Kirk, Daniel, 2015. "The Vermont Common Assets Trust: An institution for sustainable, just and efficient resource allocation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 71-79.
    15. Ida Rudolfsen, 2021. "Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 215-230, March.
    16. Iqbal, Kazi & Tsubota, Kenmei & Shonchoy, Abu S & Hoque, Mainul, 2018. "Distributional impact of political violence : evidence from differential impacts on commodity price," IDE Discussion Papers 711, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Fjelde, Hanne, 2015. "Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 525-534.

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