IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v36y2008i12p2547-2565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Proposal for a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrarini, Benno

Abstract

Summary We argue that the New Debt Sustainability Framework (NDSF) of the World Bank and IMF is centered on the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) to suit the aid allocation mechanism of the International Development Association (IDA), but fails to deal effectively with the economic vulnerability of low-income countries. Instead, we propose a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework (CDSF), which identifies the sources of vulnerability and compensates for exogenous shock and trend factors. Without giving rise to significant moral hazard implications, the CDSF is thus suitable to effectively shield low-income countries from the main external causes undermining their achievement of debt sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrarini, Benno, 2008. "Proposal for a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 2547-2565, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:12:p:2547-2565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305-750X(08)00103-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham Bird & Alistair Milne, 2004. "Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries: Is it Effective and Efficient?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Finance and the Developing Economies, chapter 15, pages 273-288, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    3. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-1097, December.
    4. Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay & Massimo Mastruzzi, 2004. "Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 18(2), pages 253-287.
    5. Maizels, Alfred, 1994. "The continuing commodity crisis of developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1685-1695, November.
    6. Mr. Kevin Ross & Mr. R. Brooks & Mr. Robert Powell & Ms. Ydahlia A. Metzgen Quemarez & Ms. Doris C Ross & Mr. Mariano Cortes & Saqib Rizavi & Benoit Ketchekmen & Ms. Francesca Fornasari, 1998. "External Debt Histories of Ten Low-Income Developing Countries: Lessons from Their Experience," IMF Working Papers 1998/072, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    8. repec:bla:devpol:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:5-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    10. Christopher L. Gilbert & Alexandra Tabova, 2005. "Can we link concessional debt service to commodity prices?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0508, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    11. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    12. Huberman, Gur & Kahn, Charles M, 1988. "Limited Contract Enforcement and Strategic Renegotiation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 471-484, June.
    13. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    14. Sebastian Edwards, 2003. "Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 513-531, April.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    16. Jean‐Louis Combes & Patrick Guillaumont, 2002. "Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 25-39, March.
    17. Collier, Paul & Dehn, Jan, 2001. "Aid, shocks, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2688, The World Bank.
    18. Kanbur, Ravi, 2005. "Reforming the Formula: A Modest Proposal for Introducing Development Outcomes in IDA Allocation Procedures," CEPR Discussion Papers 4971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Balassa, Bela, 1982. "Structural adjustment policies in developing economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-38, January.
    20. Madhur Gautam, 2003. "Debt Relief for the Poorest : An OED Review of the HIPC Initiative," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15164.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1335-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Adebayo ADEDOKUN & Ololade Moses BABATUNDE, 2017. "Modeling Optimal Debt and Expenditure in Malawi: A Dynamic Optimization Approach," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 402-412, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benno Ferrarini, 2009. "Policy, vulnerability and the new debt sustainability framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 895-914.
    2. Ralf Hepp, 2005. "Can Debt Relief Buy Growth?," International Finance 0510003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    4. HEPP, Ralf, 2010. "CONSEQUENCES OF DEBT RELIEF INITIATIVES IN THE 1990s," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    5. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    6. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    7. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    8. Marchesi, Silvia & Missale, Alessandro, 2013. "Did High Debts Distort Loan and Grant Allocation to IDA Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-62.
    9. Sanford, Jonathan E., 2004. "IDA Grants and HIPC Debt Cancellation: Their Effectiveness and Impact on IDA Resources," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1579-1607, September.
    10. Kebalo, Léleng, 2017. "Incidence de l'ouverture économique et de la libéralisation financière des pays de la Communauté Économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest sur leurs activités économiques [Impact of economic ope," MPRA Paper 79442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2008-06, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    13. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Does aid mitigate external shocks?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-18, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-28.
    16. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank.
    17. Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/205, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557091, HAL.
    20. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers 200714, CERDI.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:12:p:2547-2565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.