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Policy, vulnerability and the new debt sustainability framework

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  • Benno Ferrarini

    (World Trade Institute, Bern, Switzerland)

Abstract

We investigate the empirical foundations of the New Debt Sustainability Framework (NDSF), which was recently endorsed by the IMF and the World Bank in support of low-income countries' (LICs) debt sustainability. Our empirical re-assessment questions the existence of a probabilistic relationship between the quality of countries' policies and institutions and their risk of debt distress. In contrast, we find that indicators of economic vulnerability are more significant predictors of debt distress among LICs. We argue that the NDSF is bound to distort aid allocation away from the country-specific circumstances which truly matter for the achievement of debt sustainability. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Benno Ferrarini, 2009. "Policy, vulnerability and the new debt sustainability framework," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 895-914.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:21:y:2009:i:7:p:895-914
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.1508
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    2. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert & Alexandra Tabova, 2005. "Can we link concessional debt service to commodity prices?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0508, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. Kanbur, Ravi, 2005. "Reforming the Formula: A Modest Proposal for Introducing Development Outcomes in IDA Allocation Procedures," CEPR Discussion Papers 4971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Madhur Gautam, 2003. "Debt Relief for the Poorest : An OED Review of the HIPC Initiative," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15164.
    6. Mr. Kevin Ross & Mr. R. Brooks & Mr. Robert Powell & Ms. Ydahlia A. Metzgen Quemarez & Ms. Doris C Ross & Mr. Mariano Cortes & Saqib Rizavi & Benoit Ketchekmen & Ms. Francesca Fornasari, 1998. "External Debt Histories of Ten Low-Income Developing Countries: Lessons from Their Experience," IMF Working Papers 1998/072, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Collier, Paul & Dehn, Jan, 2001. "Aid, shocks, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2688, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "The concept of structural economic vulnerability and its relevance for the identification of the Least Developed Countries and other purposes," CDP Background Papers 012, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    2. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," Working Papers 201237, CERDI.
    3. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2012. "Does Structural Economic Vulnerability Matter for Public Indebtedness in Developing Countries?," Working Papers 201236, CERDI.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," Working Papers halshs-00749470, HAL.
    5. J. Atsu Amegashie, 2023. "The Debt-to-GDP Ratio as a Tool for Debt Management: Not Good for LICs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10273, CESifo.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "Does Structural Economic Vulnerability Matter for Public Indebtedness in Developing Countries?," Working Papers halshs-00749469, HAL.

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