Technological trajectories as an outcome of the structure-agency interplay at the national level: Insights from emerging varieties of AI

Development studies have paid less attention to the role of technological innovations and we are yet to understand how, and more importantly why, technological trajectories differ across countries. This gap becomes sharper as emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) are becoming increasingly important in addressing many world development challenges. Drawing on insights from institutional work literature, this paper develops a structure-agency interplay framework to unravel the various trajectories of emerging technologies at the national level and examines the development and diffusion of AI in Canada and China. The findings show that Canada’s stable institutional environment, reinforced through institutional work by various actors, generated a national AI trajectory driven by technology development through a strong focus on scientific research and ethics, with slower organic commercialisation of AI. In China, a dynamic and loose institutional structure characterised by lax regulations, low entry barriers, and high openness to novelties has resulted in a market-driven AI trajectory focused on technology commercialisation, with domestic digital giants and the government as dominant players. National-level dynamics in formal institutions, informal institutions, technologies, and actor strategies determine heterogeneous approaches to technology development and diffusion, giving rise to varieties of technological trajectories. The levels of institutionalisation exert different forces and create different spaces for institutional work across different geographical contexts.